Tag Archives: USD

Sterling surged on Wednesday, with the pound-to-dollar exchange rate hitting its highest level since February 2022 — marking a fresh three-year high. This rally reflects both renewed confidence in the pound and continued weakness in the US dollar.

Dollar Weakness Fuels Sterling Rally

The move higher was part of a broader advance in the pound, driven by easing market volatility and the ongoing USD sell-off that has defined the early part of 2025.

Fears of a US economic slowdown continue to weigh on the greenback, offering the pound additional upside potential in the weeks ahead — particularly if today’s economic data disappoints.

Data Deluge from the Eurozone

Today brings a wave of EU data, including:

• French CPI
• German Retail Sales
• Eurozone GDP growth figures

These releases will be watched closely for signs of inflation persistence and economic resilience, particularly as the ECB considers its next policy move.

UK House Prices Weaken

Already released this morning, the UK House Price Index showed a steeper decline than expected, falling 0.6% on the month. While not entirely surprising given the high interest rate environment, this underlines the strain in the UK property sector.

US Data Could Shift Sentiment

Later today, a raft of US economic data is due, including:

• ADP Employment Change
• Q1 GDP
• Personal Income & Spending

Markets will be analysing these numbers for signs of economic momentum — or lack thereof. Any downside surprises could deepen dollar losses and further support GBP/USD gains.

Time to Act on Market Moves

With Sterling showing strength and data driving daily volatility, now is the time to evaluate your FX exposure. Sudden shifts in sentiment could offer opportunity — or risk — depending on how you’re positioned.

Qumoney’s currency experts are on hand to help you make sense of today’s market and capitalise on favourable rates.

Speak to us today for timely insights and bespoke foreign exchange strategies.

It’s been a turbulent 24 hours in currency markets, with the US dollar starting the day strong, only to reverse course ahead of the European close. By the end of the session, the dollar had lost ground, continuing a broader softening trend.

Meanwhile, the euro stayed on the defensive overnight, unable to capitalise on the greenback’s late-session weakness.

Focus Shifts to Key Sentiment Data

Looking ahead, today’s data calendar is packed, offering fresh insight into economic sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic.

In Europe, the spotlight will be on the European Commission’s sentiment indicators for April. Modest declines are expected across most sectors, reflecting the continued strain from inflation and trade uncertainty.

In the US, attention will turn to two key releases:

• JOLTS Job Vacancies (March) – a closely watched indicator of labour market strength.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April) – projected to drop sharply from 92.9 to 87.5, the lowest reading since January 2021.

A weak confidence print could further dampen the dollar’s recovery prospects, particularly as concerns grow over slowing domestic demand and consumer sentiment.

What This Means for FX Markets

With confidence indicators in focus, markets are bracing for further volatility. The direction of the dollar — and broader risk sentiment — could hinge on how today’s data compares to expectations.

For businesses, this environment presents both challenges and opportunities. Exchange rate shifts can impact costs, margins, and the timing of cross-border payments.

Qumoney’s currency specialists are here to help you navigate these market moves and develop a strategy that works for your business.

Contact us today for tailored FX solutions and real-time insights.

The risk-off mood that dominated early this week eased yesterday as European markets reopened following the Easter break. Sentiment shifted positively following comments from President Trump that suggested a possible de-escalation in trade tensions with China — and reassurances that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will remain in his role.

Dollar Strengthens Across the Board

With risk appetite recovering, the US dollar surged, gaining over 1% against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc. As a result of the stronger greenback, the euro also fell against the pound, offering Sterling a lift in relative terms.

The rebound in the dollar underscores how sensitive markets remain to both political signals and the evolving macroeconomic narrative.

Flash PMIs in the Spotlight Today

Today, investor attention will be focused on the flash PMI releases for April — key indicators of economic health across the Eurozone, UK, and US.

• Eurozone PMIs are expected to decline modestly, reflecting a softening outlook amid tariff and growth pressures.
• UK and US PMIs, however, are projected to show sharper falls, as both economies absorb the impact of slowing global demand and elevated inflation.

These releases will likely set the tone for near-term currency moves, especially if they come in below expectations.

Central Bank Commentary Also in Focus

In addition to economic data, remarks from various central bank officials are due throughout the day. Markets will be watching closely for any shifts in tone or fresh clues around interest rate trajectories — especially as inflation cools but growth risks persist.

Prepare for Currency Volatility

With PMIs and central bank signals driving intraday movement, businesses exposed to foreign exchange risk should remain alert. Exchange rates can shift rapidly in this kind of environment, creating both risk and opportunity.

Qumoney’s expert FX team is on hand to guide you through market developments and help you secure competitive rates on your international payments.

Speak to us today for strategic currency solutions tailored to your needs.

Stronger-than-expected US retail sales figures released yesterday provided a welcome boost to sentiment, suggesting the world’s largest economy ended Q1 in better shape than anticipated.

Sales rose by 1.4% in March, exceeding the 1.3% forecast, while the core control group measure, closely watched by economists, climbed by 0.4%.

US Economy Holding Up – But Slowing Slightly

The data reinforces the narrative that the US economy remains resilient, though it likely experienced a modest slowdown in growth through the latter part of Q1. Nonetheless, the better-than-expected results offer some reassurance amid ongoing global headwinds.

ECB in the Spotlight Today

Shifting the focus to Europe, today’s main event is the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. Markets are widely expecting a 25 basis point cut, which would bring the deposit rate down to 2.25%.

This would mark the third consecutive rate cut as the ECB continues to prioritise growth, even as inflation risks remain elevated.

All Eyes on Lagarde’s Comments

Following the decision, the ECB’s post-meeting press conference will be closely watched. However, with uncertainty clouding the economic outlook — from trade disruptions to persistent inflationary pressures — the central bank may opt to remain cautious in its forward guidance.

Investors will be looking for any clues on the future path of interest rates, as well as the ECB’s broader stance on stimulus and policy flexibility.

Why It Matters for Your Business

Policy shifts from both the Fed and ECB can have direct consequences for exchange rates, borrowing costs, and cross-border pricing. Whether you’re trading in euros, dollars, or other currencies, staying ahead of central bank moves is crucial to protecting your margins.

Qumoney’s currency specialists are on hand to help you interpret developments and plan your FX strategy accordingly.

Get in touch today for personalised insights and risk management support.

The market’s brief moment of optimism came crashing down yesterday as reality set in: the US-China trade war is far from over.

Investors initially welcomed the US decision to defer reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, but the relief rally quickly reversed as doubts grew over the feasibility of negotiating multiple complex trade deals within that window.

Risk Appetite Fades as Trade Tensions Resurface

As the mood soured, risk appetite dropped sharply. The escalation in trade rhetoric, coupled with a lack of concrete diplomatic progress, left markets on edge. Tariffs may be delayed — but the threat of imposition still looms large.

Safe-Haven Currencies Rise

Currency markets reacted swiftly. Classic safe havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and euro all benefited from the shift in sentiment.

Meanwhile, both the US dollar and British pound came under pressure, allowing the euro to hit fresh year-to-date highs against both currencies — a clear signal of where investor confidence currently lies.

UK GDP Surprises to the Upside

Amid the market volatility, there was a silver lining for Sterling: the UK’s monthly GDP for February exceeded expectations, rising by 0.5% compared to a forecast of just 0.1%.

This better-than-expected growth offers a glimmer of hope for the UK economy, which has been weighed down by high interest rates and policy uncertainty in recent months.

US Consumer Sentiment on the Radar

Looking ahead, attention will shift to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, due later today. As a leading indicator of US economic health, it could influence market direction — particularly for the dollar — depending on whether it signals resilience or further strain among American households.

Plan Proactively in Unpredictable Markets

In today’s fast-moving landscape, staying informed isn’t enough — it’s crucial to be proactive. Whether you’re concerned about tariff-driven currency moves or want to make the most of positive UK data, Qumoney’s FX experts are here to guide you.

Reach out today for strategic insights and personalised solutions to help your business stay one step ahead.