Stronger-than-expected US retail sales figures released yesterday provided a welcome boost to sentiment, suggesting the world’s largest economy ended Q1 in better shape than anticipated.
Sales rose by 1.4% in March, exceeding the 1.3% forecast, while the core control group measure, closely watched by economists, climbed by 0.4%.
US Economy Holding Up – But Slowing Slightly
The data reinforces the narrative that the US economy remains resilient, though it likely experienced a modest slowdown in growth through the latter part of Q1. Nonetheless, the better-than-expected results offer some reassurance amid ongoing global headwinds.
ECB in the Spotlight Today
Shifting the focus to Europe, today’s main event is the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. Markets are widely expecting a 25 basis point cut, which would bring the deposit rate down to 2.25%.
This would mark the third consecutive rate cut as the ECB continues to prioritise growth, even as inflation risks remain elevated.
All Eyes on Lagarde’s Comments
Following the decision, the ECB’s post-meeting press conference will be closely watched. However, with uncertainty clouding the economic outlook — from trade disruptions to persistent inflationary pressures — the central bank may opt to remain cautious in its forward guidance.
Investors will be looking for any clues on the future path of interest rates, as well as the ECB’s broader stance on stimulus and policy flexibility.
Why It Matters for Your Business
Policy shifts from both the Fed and ECB can have direct consequences for exchange rates, borrowing costs, and cross-border pricing. Whether you’re trading in euros, dollars, or other currencies, staying ahead of central bank moves is crucial to protecting your margins.
Qumoney’s currency specialists are on hand to help you interpret developments and plan your FX strategy accordingly.
Get in touch today for personalised insights and risk management support.