Tag Archives: USD

The major currency pairs were firmly range bound. A shortage of data schedules is believed to have contributed to the slow pace price movement.

The yen gave back some of its gains earned before the European open, following hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda over the weekend that it may consider removing its zero interest rate policy at the end of the year.

The UK labour market numbers for July were released this morning. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% from 4.2%, as expected. meanwhile, average wages were 8.5% higher year on year (vs. +8.2% year on year forecast). So far, the news has had no effect on sterling in early exchanges.

Later today, survey data for September, including the German ZEW and US small business optimism are due. However, barring any major surprises, the data are unlikely to impact on forex markets.

We begin the week with a quiet day in terms of economic data. 

In the Eurozone, the Sentix investor confidence survey is expected to have fallen to -20.0 in September from -18.9 in August.

Tomorrow morning, we have the UK retail sales report for August ahead of the ‘official’ ONS release on the 22nd. Last month, both the ONS and BRC noted that poor weather had weighed on July retail sales and commentators will be watching for signs of a rebound in activity in August in the latest release.

Also of interest, will be Wednesday’s appearance of the Bank of England’s MPC members before Parliaments Treasury select Committee where they will be grilled on the latest developments concerning UK inflation and interest rates.

The pound continues to look well supported heading into the week not losing any gains over the weekend against the euro.

Lastly, of interest will be the Thursdays release of the Eurozone GDP for the second quarter, where a small increase of 0.3 percent is expected to be announced. 

In terms of data, US core-PCE inflation increased to 4.2% in July, up from 4.1% in June, as expected. However, the monthly growth was only 0.2% for the second month in a row.

 In the Eurozone, headline inflation remained at 5.3% in August (vs. 5.1% expected), but core inflation also decreased to 5.3%, in line with forecasts. Market rate expectations have weakened as a result of less aggressive central bank language and good inflation data.

The August labour market data for the United States will be published today. Nonfarm payrolls in the United States are predicted to be 170k, the lowest level since December 2020. The unemployment rate in the United States is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%.

The release is expected to demonstrate that the pace of payroll growth has slowed even further. The data create some event risk for US interest rates and the USD.



Investor confidence was upbeat yesterday at the beginning of the business week. Without a particularly notable catalyst for the risk-on’ environment, this was reflected in continued gains on equities markets from both sides of the Atlantic.

The large number of central bank speakers who attended the Jackson Hole Economic symposium over the weekend did not provide any surprises or significant new information regarding the prospects for monetary policy for the FX majors to consider.

The major FX pairs therefore open this morning similarly to 24 hours ago. This indicates that the dollar has maintained its competitive advantage over the euro and the pound.

Looking ahead to today’s macro data agenda, the US schedule provides most of the releases. House prices from June, job opportunities from July, and the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence from August are all included.

Yesterday’s big data highlight was US durable goods orders for July. Headline orders decreased more than expected, by 5.2%, compared to a -4.0% drop predicted.

However, the headline figure can fluctuate from month to month. Meanwhile, ‘core’ orders increased by 0.1%, which was in line with expectations.

The dollar was firmer yesterday, and this has persisted in overnight trading ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today. In other currency news, sterling has been under pressure, coinciding with a further decrease in UK yields/interest rates.

Given that the Fed is increasingly heavily reliant on data and makes rate decisions meeting by meeting, he may not provide any firm insight on the US rate future. Today’s conference will also feature remarks from ECB President Lagarde.