Tag Archives: USD

Markets anticipate that the UK’s inflation figures increase the possibility that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by the beginning of 2024.

Core CPI inflation, which provides a more accurate indication of domestic inflationary pressures, increased by 6.1% y/y in September, beating forecasts for a decline to 6.0%. (This is down from 6.2% in August.)

Many believe that the Bank of England will be particularly concerned about the rise in services inflation because policymakers have indicated concern about the durability of inflation in the economy’s largest sector.

Today’s macro diary focuses on the United States. The weekly jobless claims, existing home sales for September, and the regional Philly Fed survey for October are among the data highlights.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks to the Economic Club of New York will be watched closely.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) issued data earlier this morning showing that the UK’s inflation rate stayed at 6.7% in September.

Several analysts had estimated that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure would decline slightly to 6.6% from August. However, the release had no influence on sterling in early trading.

US retail sales increased by 0.7%, exceeding the forecasted 0.3% increase. A crucial indicator of core retail sales for the control group increased by 0.6% M/M.

Despite the hardening of US market rate expectations, the dollar was not in the ascendancy in terms of currency. Instead, the euro was maintaining its stability. Looking ahead today remarks from a number of Fed speakers will be watched closely.

The major currency pairs remained closely range-bound. The sluggish price movement on the markets was probably caused by a scant data schedule. The dollar moved very slightly lower, which is one of the few changes worth noting. 

UK average earnings figures had already published below estimates today. In the three months leading up to August, wages increased by 8.1% Y/Y (vs.+8.3% Y/Y) Following the news, hopes for a UK rate increase have slightly weakened. 

Market statistics like the unemployment rate. The US industrial production, September retail sales, and the German ZEW survey are all due later today. Numerous Fed officials’ comments will certainly get notice.

It’s a relatively calm start to what should be a busy week for data releases, notably in the United Kingdom. Because there will be no major data releases, the market’s attention will be drawn to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, as well as statements from major central bank officials in the run-up to the next round of policy announcements.

Pound Sterling appears to be under pressure versus the Euro after a seven-day recovery was reversed at the conclusion of last week; attention in the coming days will be supplied by UK wage and inflation data.

The all important September inflation figures are out on Wednesday, and the market expects headline inflation to decline to 6.5% year on year from 6.7%.but the month-on-month number is expected to jump from 0.3% to 0.4%

Retail sales and industrial production for September, as well as a variety of housing market updates, are due in the United States. However, comments from several Fed speakers may have a greater impact on the dollar. The data calendar in the Eurozone is quite light.