Tag Archives: USD

UK inflation surprise
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Money News Overview Thursday 11th January 2024: The US CPI forecasted to rise

Today, the economic market calendar is dominated by US Consumer Price Index releases.

Also in the US we have the headline US inflation figure whereby this is set to increase to 3.2 percent (+0.1% forecast). Core inflation which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to ease to 3.8 percent in December (-0.2% forecast).

Lastly in terms of data for the US, we cap of the day with the unemployment claims that are forecasted to come in at 210k which is above the market consensus of 202k.

 For the UK, the Bank of England’s comments supported the Pound yesterday. Bank of England Governor ‘Andrew Bailey’ confirmed that the outlook remained firm and holding interest rates at 5.25% will help bring inflation down to the target level of 2 percent.

UK Gross Domestic Product and Industrial Production figures are set to be released tomorrow morning. Both sets of figures are anticipated to improve from December and show the UK economy is improving.

The Pound has been trading in a tight range this week against the Euro within 0.3 percent. Against the Dollar, GBPUSD is currently at its highest level since late December.

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Money News Overview Tuesday 9th January 2024: All eyes on US inflation reports this week

Markets kick off the day with the UKs British Retail Consortium (BRC) December retail activity report. It has shown in the report that spending has dropped for the festive period likely due to consumer confidence. 

Later today, the EU releases their Unemployment figures where it is expected that the rate of people in the Eurozone who are currently unemployed but seeking work is to remain at 6.5% for the last quarter. 

Looking ahead this week, in the UK there we have the release of the GDP figures whereby markets expect it to show some small growth of 0.2% month on month, alongside this release there will be UK Industrial Production reports in Manufacturing where the growth is expected to come in at 0.3%. 

The key releases this week will be in the US, where they will release their Consumer Price Index figures. Markets currently forecast there to be an increase to 3.2% which is up 0.1% on this time last year. 

Investors will keep a keen eye on the report, with any surprise movement potentially having a heavy impact on the dollar rate. 

As for the dollar, the pound has continued yesterday’s rally rising 50 basis points. As for the pound-euro rate, the pound has continued to hold just above the yearly average. 

Dollar Weakens as Markets Eye ECB Rate Cut Decision
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Money News Overview Friday 5th January 2024: The US labour market report is the focus of attention

The US labour market data for December will be today’s major economic announcement. Payrolls are expected to increase by 170k vs. the previous 199k back in December.

Despite the tight market, pay growth slowed last year, and more indications of this are expected today, with annual growth falling to 3.9% from 4.0% earlier.

Overall, the report is likely to show that interest rates have peaked but will not provide strong evidence for the Federal Reserve to decrease rates sooner.

The December construction PMI survey in the UK is anticipated to show a somewhat slower rate of contraction. According to the consensus forecasts, the headline index will grow from 45.5 to 46.1, remaining below the critical 50 level.

The main currency pairings were trading in very narrow ranges. The dollar was under some marginal downward pressure among the few market movements to note. However, the greenback quickly recovered its losses. Meanwhile, the yen was on the defensive, losing about 1%.

Yesterday, the BoE MPC voted 5 to 4 in favour of a 25bps rate drop. In the run-up to the announcement, markets anticipated a close call, with pricing leaning slightly towards a rate drop.
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Money News Overview Monday 30th October 2023: Markets await Bank of England policy announcement later in the week

This week we have the Bank of England policy announcement that will take centre stage on Thursday.

The pound has had a negative run of late following the Bank of England’s decision last month to not raise interest rates.

This week’s policy announcement is expected to confirm the Bank will not be increasing rates for a second consecutive month. Markets will be keen to see what kind of comments come out of this meeting and what the long-term view is going forward regarding interest rates.

GBP remains rangebound against the euro with very little movement over the past week, but it is expected that the Bank of England’s policy announcement could break the deadlock and either push it lower to fresh multi-month lows or even prompt a rebound.

This week’s highlight for the Euro will be the release of the Eurozone inflation figures for October.

For today, German GDP flash estimates for the quarter have come in a little better than expected. Later in the morning we have the Business & Consumer Confidence figures for the EU, followed by German CPI numbers later this afternoon.

For the UK, we have the Mortgage Approvals and Lending figures due this morning. Finally, to confirm there is no US data due today. 

FX market trends
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Money News Overview Friday 27th October 2023: ECB keeps interest rates on hold

The ECB left policy unchanged yesterday for the first time since June 2022. President Lagarde reaffirmed at the press conference that the ECB will keep interest rates at a sufficiently restrictive level for as long as it takes to return inflation to target. Despite the recent slowdown in business, this suggests that rate cuts are not now on the table.

The focus will shift to the remaining economic statistics due ahead of the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve policy announcements next week.

of importance are from the United States. In September, core-PCE inflation is expected to fall to 3.7% from 3.9%. Meanwhile, consumer spending and income are expected to remain strong in September.

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