Tag Archives: USD

Breaking News: Britons Head to the Polls in Pivotal Election

Today, Britons are casting their votes in a parliamentary election that is widely expected to bring Keir Starmer’s Labour Party to power, ending Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s 14-year Conservative tenure.

Opinion polls indicate that Starmer’s centre-left party is on track for a landslide victory. Many voters are seeking change after years of internal conflict and turmoil within the Conservative Party, which has seen five prime ministers in the past eight years.

Despite calling the election months earlier than planned, Sunak has recently shifted his campaign focus from securing a fifth consecutive Conservative victory to warning about the potential risks of an unchallenged Labour Party in parliament.

If the opinion polls are accurate, Britain will join other European nations in holding their governments accountable for the cost-of-living crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, unlike France, Britain appears to be moving towards the centre-left rather than the far-right.

In other news, the United States is observing a market holiday in celebration of Independence Day. Across the Atlantic, the main European release of interest is the European Central Bank’s June meeting account, offering additional insights into the central bank’s recent decision to decrease interest rates by 25 basis points.

For more detailed insights on how these developments could impact your business or to take advantage of market volatility, please reach out to one of our experts.

Today’s economic calendar kicks off with the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. Investors are eager to see if the recent interest rate cut has made an impact, with markets anticipating a slight drop to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent.

Attention then shifts to major speeches this afternoon from European Central Bank President Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Their remarks could offer valuable insights into future monetary policy.

The rest of the week is dominated by US data, which might pressure the pound further against the dollar. Key US releases include the ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Political events are also in the spotlight, with the UK general election on Thursday. The uncertainty surrounding the potential for a Labour government is expected to create currency market volatility.

Following the UK election, the second round of the French elections begins on Sunday, likely causing additional market fluctuations as we head into next week.

On the currency front, the pound remains below the 34-month highs seen in June. With limited UK data and the general election this week, there could be opportunities to leverage limit orders. Meanwhile, the dollar is poised to gain further strength against the pound following the week’s data releases.

For more insights on how these developments could impact your business or to capitalise on market volatility, please reach out to one of our experts.

Today started quietly with only a few significant data releases on the agenda.

This morning, we saw the Consumer Confidence figures for Germany and France, which showed that confidence levels remain down, as expected.

Later today, we’ll be looking at the US New Home Sales figures and the weekly petroleum report.

In currency news, the pound strengthened against the euro at the close of business yesterday. The upcoming French election has injected some volatility into this currency pair.

The first round of voting in the French elections takes place this Sunday, with the National Rally (RN) increasingly likely to secure the most votes. According to a leading poll tracker by The Economist, the RN is leading with 37 percent of the vote, ahead of the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front, which stands at 29 percent. This anticipation is contributing to further weakness in the euro as we head into the weekend.

Looking ahead, tomorrow promises to be a significant day for data. We’ll see the release of the EU Business & Consumer Confidence figures, along with the US Durable Goods Orders, Employment, and GDP figures.

On Friday, the UK will brace itself for the latest Growth figures. For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility, please reach out to speak with one of our experts.

The quiet start to the week continues with little major economic releases scheduled for today.

Markets continue to focus on the upcoming UK and French elections. There is a lot of market talk that the upcoming elections may not be positive for GBP. One major bank has said that GBP remains beholden to exchange rates and will likely be on a path of gradual weakness in the upcoming months.

Current poll results are largely in Labours favour; therefore, the market is already positioned for such a result and could be what is putting the holding back the pound strengthening further.

Focus will shift to Wednesday afternoon with the US releasing their New Home Sales report, it has been forecasted to come in at 640k up from last month’s 634k.

Thursday brings the release of US Employment figures, with markets pricing in a small decline to 236k (from 238k). Gross Domestic Product will be announced in cohesion with this, with investors eyeing a major decline to 1.3 percent from last quarters 3.4 percent.

For the UK, attention turns to Friday for Gross Domestic Product, it is widely expected that there will be signs of growth in the UK with markets anticipating a rise to 0.6 percent, up from last quarters -0.3 percent.

With the lack of UK data being released this week we could see the pound fall further from its 22-month highs we saw last week.

On the currency front, the pound could fall further against dollar due to the lack of major releases in the UK.

This morning, we have the German IFO business and UK CBI Industrial Trends survey due.

It is a very quiet start to the week in terms of economic data, with focus shifting to tomorrows UK growth figures and Thursdays raft of US data.

The pound has fallen from its highs where it hit a 22-month high against the euro on June 14^th but has since slowly faded away.

As it is a quiet week, we could see the pound drift lower towards the end of the week.

A return to the mid-month highs looks unlikely, as last week’s Bank of England policy update revealed that the bank is readying for an August rate cut.

Markets are now pricing in a 65 percent probability of this happening adding pressure to the pound. Obviously, as this percentage increases the pound could lose further value.

The euro has its own problems with the French election taking centre stage. Political events will remain an important driver of the euro ahead of the French general election on 30^th June and 7^th July.

As we edge close to the event itself, focus will certainly be on the polls ahead of the election as investors try to position for different potential outcomes.