Tag Archives: USD

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Money News Overview Thursday 25th July: Pound Sterling falls after stock market selloff

In today’s economic calendar, German IFO which measures businesses confidence in Germany is set to rise for business sentiment and current conditions.

Later on today, we have a mixture of US data releases. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits is set to come in at 238k.

US Gross Domestic Product is priced in to rise by 2 percent in the second quarter of 2024 (April – June). Economic growth in the States has been supported by an increase in consumer spending and inventory building, however markets are still pricing in a September interest rate cut.

Pound Sterling has fallen this morning against a number of currencies in the G10 (JPY, CHF, USD & EUR) after a stock market selloff. A decline in investor sentiment has pushed GBPUSD to a two-week low.

GBPEUR has lost most of its gains sustained over the past week; but still remains marginally close to the two-year high it achieved earlier this month.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

GBPJPY is down a significant 5 percent as pressure mounts of the Bank of Japan to reduce interest rates. GBPAUD is up 2% over the course of the last week.

US data and EU-US trade impact on FX
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Money News Overview Wednesday 24th July: Pound trading at its highest level since August 2022 against the euro

The market action yesterday was marked by sluggish trading conditions across all of the key asset groups.

Since the beginning of the year, the pound has gained roughly 1.5 percent, beating all of its Group-of-10 counterparts against the dollar.

Against the euro, the pound is trading at its highest level since August 2022.

The primary European data release yesterday was the EC’s flash measurement of Eurozone consumer confidence for July. The indicator came in slightly ahead of expectations, marking the sixth consecutive month of mood strengthening against a backdrop of rising real incomes.

The main US data highlight was existing home sales for June, which disappointed compared to expectations.

However, from a currency market standpoint, the macro news flow had no significant impact. Indeed, many of the majors remained in narrow ranges overnight, as they had yesterday.

In other currency news, the dollar has risen marginally against the euro and pound over the last day. 

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Following the breaking news over the weekend that President Joe Biden has pulled out of the election in the US,
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Money News Overview Tuesday 23rd July: Pressure grows on Biden to resign as president

Following the breaking news over the weekend that President Joe Biden has pulled out of the election in the US, currency markets failed to react to this news. However, pressure is on President Biden to resign as pressure grows on his ability to complete the rest of his term as president. Should President Biden resign from his post then there is likely to be some market volatility.

Attention shifts towards tomorrows releases with Purchase Manager Index reports being announced across the UK and Eurozone. Markets are forecasting the UKs manufacturing sector to decline to 51.1, this is still above the 50 point growth mark.

The Eurozone are set to release its Purchase Manager Index across all major sectors. The ECB are set to watch these releases closely, as reports are suggesting there will be another rate cut in September.

Focus will turn to the US on Thursday as Gross Domestic Product is forecasted to come in at 2 percent, which is up from last quarter’s 1.6 percent.

On the currency front the pound has remained relatively flat against both the dollar and the euro.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

US tariffs and global FX market outlook
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Money News Overview Monday 22nd July: Biden steps down from presidential race – FX markets muted

A quiet start to the week with no economic data due today.

There was a muted reaction from the FX market following yesterday’s announcement that Joe Biden will stand down in the race for the next president of the United States.

The selection of Joe Bidens replacement will be confirmed at the Democrat National Convention, which this year begins on August 19th. Bidens replacement on the ticket is highly likely to be Vice President Kamala Harris.

Last week, the pound hit highs against the dollar but has since declined following last week’s IT outage prompting investors to buy ‘safe haven’ dollars. With the glitch now fixed, there is a chance we could see some improving investor sentiment that can support the pound.

 UK PMIs on Wednesday are the only significant risk for the pound this week.

For the US, the preliminary GDP figures will be closely watched ahead of this Fridays release of the PCE inflation figures, which the FED monitors closely when considering interest rate policy.

The pound has dropped against the euro over the past week, having hit fresh highs last Wednesday. 

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

German CPI and UK consumer lending impact on FX
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Money News Overview Friday 19th July: ECB keeps rates on hold

Sterling has fallen about 0.9% since its post-CPI peak against the dollar on Wednesday. Sales numbers have left the pound on the back foot this morning, with a 1.2% decrease in June, significantly worse than the 0.6% forecast, and this is mostly due to cooler weather. This reduces sales on a net basis in Q2 and should be somewhat of drag on economic growth.

People are becoming more hopeful about the possibility of near-term rate reduction from the Bank of England. With no further data for markets to digest today, speculators will turn their attention to the next round of PMI releases early next week.

The ECB did provide some assistance for the euro. With core inflation rising and some officials expressing regret over the first rate cut last month, the rate pause at 3.75% shocked no one.

Markets are still expecting a second rate decrease in September, which Lagarde described as a wide-open meeting. Aside from some current account data this morning, the focus will shift to next week’s PMIs and today’s dollar dynamics.

This afternoon, we have a handful of Fed speakers to wrap up the week before the emphasis shifts to GDP and core PCE inflation next week.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

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