Tag Archives: Marketinsight

Sterling continued to slide overnight, losing ground against major currencies as fears of a global recession intensified. The catalyst? Fresh tariff measures announced by President Trump, which have rattled investor confidence and reignited concerns about trade-driven economic slowdown.

GBP Drops Against Majors, Gains Elsewhere

The pound has shed around 1.5% against both the euro and the US dollar over the past 24 hours. This drop reflects a broader flight to safety among investors, with heightened demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.

Interestingly, while sterling struggles against the majors, it’s showing resilience against a basket of other currencies — including the Australian dollar and South African rand. This reflects the complex ripple effects of tariff tensions across different economies.

European Data Already in Focus

Earlier today, key economic indicators from Europe were released:

• German Manufacturing figures
• French Industrial Production data

Both metrics offer a snapshot of Europe’s industrial health at a time when global trade disruptions loom large.

All Eyes on US Non-Farm Payrolls

Attention now shifts to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, due at 1:30pm (UK time). This highly anticipated report is expected to show a decline in job creation — yet given recent volatility in forecasts vs actual outcomes, markets are braced for a potential surprise.

Should the data beat or miss expectations significantly, we could see renewed swings in both currency and equity markets. This is especially true as traders weigh up the growing risk of a US recession triggered by the ongoing tariff war.

Why This Matters for Businesses

Market movements like these can create both risks and opportunities for international businesses. Exchange rate shifts can impact everything from supplier payments to overseas income — and in a volatile environment, timing and strategy are everything.

Qumoney’s FX experts are here to help. Whether you’re looking to hedge risk or seize favourable currency rates, we offer tailored solutions to support your global operations.

Contact us today for a one-on-one discussion about how to navigate market uncertainty with confidence.

Trading remained relatively subdued across European markets yesterday as investors held their breath in anticipation of a major policy move from the White House. The long-awaited announcement came after market hours, with President Trump unveiling a raft of new tariff measures aimed at key US trading partners.

Markets in Wait-and-See Mode

With little in the way of fresh economic data during the session, FX markets saw low volatility. Major currency pairs, including EUR/USD and GBP/USD, drifted within tight trading ranges. While the US dollar faced mild downward pressure, there was little momentum for a breakout in either direction.

New Tariffs Unveiled Post-Close

Once European and US markets had closed for the day, the Trump administration revealed the details of its latest tariff strategy:

• A flat 10% universal tariff was implemented.
• Country-specific rates added another layer of complexity:
  • EU exports to the US now face a 20% tariff.
  • UK goods are subject to a 10% rate.
  • Chinese imports will be hit hardest, with a significant 34% tariff.

This aggressive trade policy signals a renewed focus on protectionism, setting the stage for potential retaliation and uncertainty in the global trade landscape.

What to Watch Next

Investors will now be closely watching how global markets react to this escalation in trade tensions. Any retaliatory measures from affected nations could drive significant volatility, particularly in currency markets.

On the economic calendar, several key events are expected to influence trading sentiment:

• ECB March meeting minutes will provide insight into the central bank’s monetary policy direction.
• In the US, the spotlight is on:
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March) – a key indicator of economic health.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims – offering a snapshot of labour market strength.

Navigating Market Uncertainty

With geopolitical risks mounting and policy changes driving volatility, businesses and investors should remain agile. Our currency experts at Qumoney are here to help you interpret market movements and capitalise on opportunities as they arise.

Get in touch with us today to discuss tailored strategies for your international payments and currency risk management.

This morning’s German Import and Retail Sales figures both exceeded expectations, indicating some resilience in Europe’s largest economy. However, the upbeat data failed to lift the euro, which continues to struggle for traction amid broader market caution.

Focus Shifts to UK Consumer Lending Data

Next on the schedule is the UK’s Consumer Lending report, which includes figures on mortgage approvals, household lending, and consumer credit. These indicators will offer a snapshot of domestic demand and borrowing trends heading into Q2.

German Inflation in Focus This Afternoon

Later in the day, attention will turn back to Germany with the release of CPI inflation data—an important reading ahead of the upcoming ECB policy discussions. A higher-than-expected print could revive euro support, while a soft number may add further pressure.

Stay Ahead of Market Shifts

With key data influencing currency movements, now is the time to stay proactive. Speak to a QuMoney specialist for bespoke insights and risk management strategies to support your international transactions.

Today’s economic calendar features several key data releases, beginning with Germany’s Business Survey, followed by the UK’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey—offering further insight into retail sector performance.

Across the Atlantic, attention will turn to the US housing market later this afternoon, with the release of the Home Price Index and New Home Sales data.

UK Services PMI Supports Sterling

Yesterday’s UK PMI data revealed renewed strength in the services sector, signalling a pick-up in economic momentum. The pound responded positively, gaining support as markets reassessed the growth outlook.

Geopolitical Developments in Focus

Beyond economic indicators, this week’s spotlight remains on diplomatic negotiations involving Russia and the US, with hopes of progress toward a resolution in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Any major developments could influence market sentiment and safe-haven flows.

Navigating Market Moves with Confidence

With a mix of data and geopolitics shaping the market narrative, now is a crucial time to review your FX strategy. Connect with a QuMoney expert for tailored insights to protect and optimise your international transactions.

Last week’s central bank meetings from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England delivered no surprises, with interest rates left unchanged as widely expected. Post-meeting commentary was similarly aligned with market expectations, signalling a steady but cautious stance from both institutions.

Currency Markets Hold in Tight Ranges

Currency movements remained relatively contained throughout the week. While EUR/USD touched a fresh year-to-date high early on, the euro quickly lost steam and ended the week on a weaker footing.

Key Data Ahead: PMIs and Inflation in Focus

Looking ahead, the flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) releases for March from the US, Eurozone, and UK will be closely watched. These figures will offer valuable insights into economic momentum—or potential lack thereof—as Q1 draws to a close.

Additionally, inflation data will be front and centre this week. The UK will release CPI inflation figures for February, while in the US, markets await the latest core PCE reading—widely regarded as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Monitoring Global Trade Risks

Ongoing trade-related developments also remain on the radar, with potential implications for currency stability and business strategy.

Stay Informed, Stay Ahead

With high-impact data on the horizon, now is the time to reassess your currency exposure. Speak with a QuMoney expert for tailored insights and strategies to help you navigate market volatility with confidence.