Tag Archives: foreignexchange

Sentiment was mixed yesterday. This developed against the backdrop of a peaceful data schedule. At the same time, markets were digesting the latest news from China regarding additional stimulus measures.

Currency-wise, the key FX pairings have been range bound for the past 24 hours. The euro fell marginally following dovish remarks from many ECB members, including the usually aggressive Bundesbank President Nagel.

Although the pound is up at the time of writing, it is still way off its highs and may experience further weakness in the coming days. This comes as UK borrowing costs made the news again after rising notably in recent days, fuelled by market concerns about the Labour government’s budget.

Looking ahead, the data calendar is quiet for the entire European session. Overnight, however, the release of the most recent Fed FOMC meeting minutes will draw attention. Meanwhile, comments from a multitude of Fed officials will be scrutinised.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Today’s economic calendar is quiet, with no major data releases. Attention shifts to Thursday for the first significant report of the week, when the U.S. will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first since the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points last month. This report could provide important insights into inflation trends and the Fed’s future actions.

Analysts expect the CPI to decline to 2.3%, down from 2.5% year-on-year. This shift might indicate easing inflation pressures, aligning with recent rate cuts. Investors are watching to see if the data supports the Federal Reserve’s policy moves.

In the UK, Friday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report will be the week’s first major release. Growth is expected, and investors are monitoring for signs of economic stability amid currency fluctuations affecting the UK market.

Following recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey regarding interest rates, the pound has fallen against both the US dollar and the euro. The pound/euro rate dropped over 100 points.

The pound/dollar rate has seen a sharper decline, falling nearly 400 points from last week’s yearly high. Markets remain cautious as they await further developments.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

In terms of economic data today, already released the German manufacturing figures have revealed that Industrial orders have come in lower than expectations.

Also released earlier today was the Halifax housing index for the UK indicating that house prices have remained stable, albeit no growth month-on-month.

Later this morning we have the EU retail sales figures, followed by the US consumer credit figures this afternoon.

This week’s key event for the UK will be Fridays GDP data.

New figures are expected to show that the economy returned to growth in August, but surveys suggest businesses are still taking a cautious approach ahead of the budget.

The expansion is likely to be driven by the UK’s dominant services sector.

US inflation will cap off the week, as policymakers attempt to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

It is expected that the headline rate will fall to 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent, which could leave inflation at its lowest level since February 2021.

This week’s inflation figures will take on extra significance after the latest jobs report, published on Friday that came in stronger than expected.

The dollar retains its strength heading into the new week, holding onto last week’s gains against the pound and euro.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

In the United States, initial weekly unemployment claims increased to 225k from 219k (expected to be 220k), allowing the dollar to continue to advance yesterday.

Sterling was also under some downward pressure following remarks by BoE Governor Bailey. He suggested that the Bank of England may become more aggressive its rate-cutting policies. Markets have fully priced in a rate cut in November.

Looking ahead, the most notable release of the day will be the September US job market data.

The consensus is that payrolls will increase by 140k, with the unemployment rate continuing at 4.2% and average wages growth at +3.8%.

The numbers indicate some event risk for the dollar. Elsewhere, in the UK, statements by BoE Chief Economist Pill may attract some notice

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Yesterday, market mood-maintained risk-off as tensions in the Middle East escalated. The dollar’s appeal as a safe haven increased when Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, and the US threatened with severe repercussions.

On the data front, the flash reading of Eurozone HICP inflation fell to 1.8% in September, as expected. Core-HICP edged down to 2.7% from 2.8%. However, service inflation remained elevated, at 4% for the month.

Meanwhile, the US manufacturing ISM remained constant at 47.2 in September. However, the statistics had little effect on market sentiment yesterday.

Currency-wise, despite the risk-averse tone on markets, the dollar was firmly in the ascendancy. The dollar gained almost 0.6% against the euro and the pound. Elsewhere, the yen was higher, benefiting from safe-haven demand.

Looking ahead for the day, the macro data calendar appears to be pretty calm. The primary report will be the Eurozone unemployment rate for August. It is expected to remain at its all-time low of 6.4% throughout the month.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.