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Global markets started the week with a cautiously optimistic tone, as risk appetite ticked slightly higher.

Mixed US Retail Sales Weigh on the Dollar

The key economic release of the day came from the United States, where retail sales for February posted a modest rebound of 0.2%—falling short of the 0.6% forecast. January’s figure was also revised lower to a 1.2% decline. The underwhelming data added to concerns about the strength of US consumer activity.

In response, the US dollar softened, slipping 0.4% against both the euro and the pound. Currency markets appear to be pricing in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate stance during tomorrow’s policy announcement.

Looking Ahead: US & Japan in Focus

Investors will now turn their attention to February’s US industrial production figures, due later today. Meanwhile, all eyes are also on the Bank of Japan, which is widely expected to leave rates unchanged during its upcoming meeting.

Expert Support When It Matters Most

Currency markets are moving on every data point. For businesses and individuals managing international transfers, it’s more important than ever to stay ahead of the curve. Speak to a QuMoney expert to make informed decisions and protect your bottom line.

Markets have eased into the week with a relatively calm start, with limited data releases on the calendar for today. However, attention will quickly turn to key developments in both the US and Europe.

US Data in Focus: Retail Sales & NY Fed Survey

This afternoon, investors will be watching the NY Fed State Manufacturing Survey, which is expected to show a decline from the previous month. Should the data underperform, it may place further pressure on the US dollar.

The more significant release will be US retail sales figures, forecast to rebound to +0.6% following a sharp -0.9% drop the previous month. A stronger-than-expected print could lend support to the greenback and influence the Fed’s next steps.

Euro Strengthens on German Spending Plan

Over the weekend, the euro gained ground after Germany’s ruling parties agreed to a major fiscal stimulus package. The plan is set to unlock public spending worth approximately 2% of GDP annually over the next decade, with a focus on infrastructure and defence—potentially boosting growth across the eurozone.

Central Bank Updates Ahead

Looking ahead, markets will be closely monitoring interest rate decisions from both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. The BoE is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.5%, while the Fed’s policy update later in the week will be the main event for global investors and currency markets alike.

Plan Ahead with Expert Guidance

For tailored guidance on how these events may affect your international transfers or corporate exposure, speak to a QuMoney specialist today. We help you navigate volatility and seize the right opportunities.

Investor Caution Drives Market Declines

Yesterday, risk aversion remained the dominant theme across global markets, with investors increasingly wary of the economic outlook amid escalating trade tensions and tariffs. This ‘risk-off’ sentiment led to another difficult day for major indices on both sides of the Atlantic, as traders sought safer assets.

Dollar Struggles Amid Economic Slowdown Concerns

In currency markets, the US dollar remained under pressure, as fears of a potential slowdown in the world’s largest economy weighed on sentiment. Uncertainty surrounding trade policies and economic resilience kept investors cautious.

Euro Gains on Optimism Over German Fiscal Stimulus

Meanwhile, the euro continued its upward momentum, buoyed by hopes that Germany’s newly announced fiscal policy measures—hailed as historic—will gain the necessary parliamentary approval. If passed, these measures could provide a much-needed boost to the eurozone economy.

Key Market Drivers: Trade Tensions and US Budget Talks

Looking ahead, investor sentiment will remain sensitive to global trade tensions and geopolitical developments. The US Senate will also be in focus, as lawmakers attempt to strike a deal on a budget bill to avoid a government shutdown this Friday. A failure to reach an agreement could lead to heightened market volatility.

Key Economic Data: US CPI Inflation Report

The most significant data release of the day will be the US CPI inflation report for February. Inflation figures will play a crucial role in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations and could drive further FX market movements.

Stay Ahead of Market Volatility

With ongoing trade tensions, political uncertainty, and key economic data releases, markets remain volatile. If you’re looking to navigate these shifts or take advantage of trading opportunities, our Qumoney experts are here to provide tailored insights and strategies.

High-Stakes Talks in Saudi Arabia

Today, US and Ukrainian officials are set to meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, marking the most senior-level discussions since the disastrous February 28th meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the American delegation, with markets closely watching for any diplomatic breakthroughs.

Ukraine Strikes Moscow Ahead of Negotiations

Overnight, Ukraine launched an attack on Moscow, adding a fresh layer of geopolitical tension just hours before negotiations begin. This has already sparked volatility in the currency markets, with traders reacting to the latest developments.

Limited Economic Data on the Calendar

From a data perspective, today is relatively quiet. The only notable release will be the US JOLTS job openings report, set for release this afternoon. While not a major market mover, it provides insight into the US labour market and could influence expectations around Federal Reserve policy.

Market Outlook: Expect Volatility

With ongoing geopolitical tensions and limited economic data, market sentiment will likely be driven by developments in the US-Ukraine talks. If you’re looking to navigate currency market fluctuations or capitalise on opportunities, our Qumoney experts are here to help.