Tag Archives: Financenews

UK inflation surprise
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Money News Overview Thursday 11th January 2024: The US CPI forecasted to rise

Today, the economic market calendar is dominated by US Consumer Price Index releases.

Also in the US we have the headline US inflation figure whereby this is set to increase to 3.2 percent (+0.1% forecast). Core inflation which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to ease to 3.8 percent in December (-0.2% forecast).

Lastly in terms of data for the US, we cap of the day with the unemployment claims that are forecasted to come in at 210k which is above the market consensus of 202k.

 For the UK, the Bank of England’s comments supported the Pound yesterday. Bank of England Governor ‘Andrew Bailey’ confirmed that the outlook remained firm and holding interest rates at 5.25% will help bring inflation down to the target level of 2 percent.

UK Gross Domestic Product and Industrial Production figures are set to be released tomorrow morning. Both sets of figures are anticipated to improve from December and show the UK economy is improving.

The Pound has been trading in a tight range this week against the Euro within 0.3 percent. Against the Dollar, GBPUSD is currently at its highest level since late December.

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Money News Overview Wednesday 10th January 2024: GBP/EUR exchange rate remains above the 200-day moving average

In terms of data, the Eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in November, well below the 6.5% forecast. However, the release had no effect on the euro. Meanwhile, German industrial production fell 0.7% for November vs. (+0.2% forecast).

There are no significant economic data releases today. Following a 0.3% drop in October, France recorded a 0.5% increase in November industrial production. The overall picture for Eurozone manufacturing activity remains bleak. Instead, the spotlight today will be on central bank speakers as markets refine their forecasts for interest rates in the coming year.

On the currency front, the major pairings remained in tight trading ranges. The dollar edged marginally higher in the limited price activity to notice, supported by a milder tone to risk appetite. In other news, the yen fell overnight on the back of some disappointing earnings reports.

The data calendar is currently somewhat limited. Meanwhile, remarks made by Bank of England Governor Bailey in evidence to the Treasury Select Committee will be watched closely. Speeches by New York Fed President Williams and ECB Board member Schnabel will be of particular interest.

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Money News Overview Tuesday 9th January 2024: All eyes on US inflation reports this week

Markets kick off the day with the UKs British Retail Consortium (BRC) December retail activity report. It has shown in the report that spending has dropped for the festive period likely due to consumer confidence. 

Later today, the EU releases their Unemployment figures where it is expected that the rate of people in the Eurozone who are currently unemployed but seeking work is to remain at 6.5% for the last quarter. 

Looking ahead this week, in the UK there we have the release of the GDP figures whereby markets expect it to show some small growth of 0.2% month on month, alongside this release there will be UK Industrial Production reports in Manufacturing where the growth is expected to come in at 0.3%. 

The key releases this week will be in the US, where they will release their Consumer Price Index figures. Markets currently forecast there to be an increase to 3.2% which is up 0.1% on this time last year. 

Investors will keep a keen eye on the report, with any surprise movement potentially having a heavy impact on the dollar rate. 

As for the dollar, the pound has continued yesterday’s rally rising 50 basis points. As for the pound-euro rate, the pound has continued to hold just above the yearly average. 

US election dollar impact 2024 announcements this week
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Money News Overview Thursday 4th January 2024: UK services PMI to reach 6-month high

Economic data released earlier this morning showed inflation in France has increased to 3.7 percent. EU-harmonised inflation also increased to 4.1 percent.

Purchasing Managers Index figures in the services sector dominate this morning’s data and are set to be released in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the European Union.

The Euro has been on a downward trend against the Pound this week. A better-than-expected EU PMI release across the board will show signs of support for the Euro.

Markets are forecasting UK PMI figures in the services sector to release at 52.7, remaining above the neutral 50 mark for the second consecutive month. This release demonstrates an expansion in the UK services sector and is a positive for the UK economy.

Inflation in Germany is anticipated to shadow the CPI release in France earlier this morning and also rise to 3.7 percent year-on-year.

This afternoon, US employment figures round off the day. The most significant release is forecasting the monthly change in US employment to rise to 115k.

Investors will keep a close eye on the EU inflation release tomorrow. The total number of goods and services purchased by consumers in the European Union is set to surge to 3 percent.  

With no significant economic data scheduled for today, market attention will shift to key UK data releases later in the week.
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Money News Overview Tuesday 2nd January 2024: PMI releases dominate the start of the year

A new year begins with a flurry of PMI releases across Europe and the UK, with markets forecasting the UKs manufacturing sector to fall to 46.5 from 47.2. This remains well off the 50-point figure that markets use as a benchmark indicator to see if there is growth in the that specific sector.

Later this week, there are some key inflation figures being released in Europe with German inflation data being released on Thursday. Markets expect inflation to rise to 3.8 percent which is an increase of 0.6 percent.

Alongside the release of German inflation, the eurozone will release their figures which markets are also expecting inflation to rise to 3 percent, up from 2.4 percent. This potentially signals that the rate cuts the European Central Bank have been implementing are yet to take full effect.

On Friday, markets also see the release of US Employment figures along with their ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey.

On the currency front, the pound has started the new year on the front foot against both the dollar and the euro, with the pound toying with 5-month highs against the dollar.

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