Tag Archives: Financenews

The relatively calm start to the week in the financial markets on Monday continued into yesterday’s price movement. On the data front, the most notable release was US retail sales in June.

The big FX pairings traded in relatively tight ranges all day yesterday. One of the few visible developments was the dollar’s early marginal downward pressure.

However, the dollar rose following the announcement of retail sales data, before falling again overnight.

The pound sterling kept its recent gains as UK inflation met its target in June, leaving many unsure if the Bank of England would cut interest rates in August.

The market’s indicated expectations for a Bank of England rate drop on August 1 were split 50/50 going into today’s all-important inflation statement, and we’re no wiser as a result. This is because all three major components of the headline CPI, core CPI, and services CPI met expectations.

Later today, the final Eurozone HICP figure for June is expected to confirm inflation at 2.8% for the month. In the United States, industrial production numbers for June are due.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Today is a quiet start to the week, with only the EU Industrial Production and NY Fed Empire State survey due.

Last week the pound touched a 2-year high against the euro and hit a 9-month high against the dollar.

The pound has gained strength following the election results and from a lot of uncertainty in Europe and the US.

Later in the week, we have retail sales, inflation and employment figures which could determine whether the pound continues its upwards trajectory.

Wednesday’s inflation figures will be followed by Thursday’s wage numbers, which will play a key role in whether the Bank of England cuts interest rates at its next policy meeting at the beginning of August.

Elsewhere this week we have the German ZEW confidence & US retail sales due.

This Thursday the ECB policy announcement will be closely watched to see if they take any action regarding interest rates. The comments afterwards will as always garner a lot of attention. 

Already released this morning, German CPI inflation printed at 2.2 percent (previous 2.4%). EU Harmonized CPI released as expected at 2.5 percent.

UK Gross Domestic Product reported above the market consensus at 0.4 percent (forecasted 0.2%). This has further reinforced a key member of the Bank of England Pill Pares comments yesterday and has pushed back the odds of a 25-basis point rate cut in August.

Later on today, we have a number of key US economic data releases. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits is set to come in at 236k.

US CPI inflation will be closely watched by investors, the headline rate is expected to ease to 3.1 percent. Markets are still pricing in that the Federal Reserve would begin with reducing interest rates by 0.25 percent in September, however future economic data releases will help determine the exact date.

GBPEUR rallied to a one-month high, and GBPUSD achieved an eleven-month high after the ONS (Office of National Statistics) showed that GDP rose by 0.4 percent during the month of June – highlighting the UK economy is improving and consumer spending is finally on the rise.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

German CPI Inflation and UK GDP: Key Market Indicators for Investors

This morning, the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was released, showing a rate of 2.2 percent, a slight decrease from the previous 2.4 percent. Meanwhile, the EU Harmonised CPI came in as expected at 2.5 percent. These figures are crucial indicators of inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, impacting both consumer prices and monetary policy decisions.

In the UK

In the UK, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report exceeded market expectations, coming in at 0.4 percent against a forecast of 0.2 percent. This stronger-than-expected growth has reinforced the comments made by Bank of England committee member Pill Pares yesterday, suggesting resilience in the UK economy. As a result, the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut in August has diminished, indicating that the Bank of England may maintain its current policy stance to support economic growth.

In the US

Later today, several key economic data releases from the US are anticipated. The number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits is projected to be around 236,000. Additionally, investors will be closely monitoring the US CPI inflation data, with the headline rate expected to ease to 3.1 percent. This data will be crucial for market participants as they assess the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy moves. Despite the expectation that the Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates by 0.25 percent in September, the timing and extent of these cuts will largely depend on upcoming economic data.

Response to the GDP Data

The UK currency markets have responded positively to the GDP data, with GBPEUR rallying to a one-month high and GBPUSD achieving an eleven-month high. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) report highlighted that GDP rose by 0.4 percent in June, underscoring the improving UK economy and increasing consumer spending. These gains reflect growing investor confidence in the UK’s economic outlook.

How will this impact you?

For businesses and investors, understanding these economic indicators and their implications is essential for making informed decisions. The fluctuations in inflation rates, GDP growth, and interest rate expectations can significantly impact market volatility and investment strategies. For further insights on how these developments could affect your business or to capitalise on market opportunities, please reach out to speak with one of our experts at QuMoney.com. Our team is here to provide guidance and support to help you navigate these complex economic landscapes.