Tag Archives: Financenews

In terms of economic data today, already released the German manufacturing figures have revealed that Industrial orders have come in lower than expectations.

Also released earlier today was the Halifax housing index for the UK indicating that house prices have remained stable, albeit no growth month-on-month.

Later this morning we have the EU retail sales figures, followed by the US consumer credit figures this afternoon.

This week’s key event for the UK will be Fridays GDP data.

New figures are expected to show that the economy returned to growth in August, but surveys suggest businesses are still taking a cautious approach ahead of the budget.

The expansion is likely to be driven by the UK’s dominant services sector.

US inflation will cap off the week, as policymakers attempt to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

It is expected that the headline rate will fall to 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent, which could leave inflation at its lowest level since February 2021.

This week’s inflation figures will take on extra significance after the latest jobs report, published on Friday that came in stronger than expected.

The dollar retains its strength heading into the new week, holding onto last week’s gains against the pound and euro.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

In the United States, initial weekly unemployment claims increased to 225k from 219k (expected to be 220k), allowing the dollar to continue to advance yesterday.

Sterling was also under some downward pressure following remarks by BoE Governor Bailey. He suggested that the Bank of England may become more aggressive its rate-cutting policies. Markets have fully priced in a rate cut in November.

Looking ahead, the most notable release of the day will be the September US job market data.

The consensus is that payrolls will increase by 140k, with the unemployment rate continuing at 4.2% and average wages growth at +3.8%.

The numbers indicate some event risk for the dollar. Elsewhere, in the UK, statements by BoE Chief Economist Pill may attract some notice

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Yesterday, market mood-maintained risk-off as tensions in the Middle East escalated. The dollar’s appeal as a safe haven increased when Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, and the US threatened with severe repercussions.

On the data front, the flash reading of Eurozone HICP inflation fell to 1.8% in September, as expected. Core-HICP edged down to 2.7% from 2.8%. However, service inflation remained elevated, at 4% for the month.

Meanwhile, the US manufacturing ISM remained constant at 47.2 in September. However, the statistics had little effect on market sentiment yesterday.

Currency-wise, despite the risk-averse tone on markets, the dollar was firmly in the ascendancy. The dollar gained almost 0.6% against the euro and the pound. Elsewhere, the yen was higher, benefiting from safe-haven demand.

Looking ahead for the day, the macro data calendar appears to be pretty calm. The primary report will be the Eurozone unemployment rate for August. It is expected to remain at its all-time low of 6.4% throughout the month.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Today brings a mix of Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, to help assess the performance of the manufacturing sector. Attention will be on whether these figures show contraction or expansion.

Early this morning, figures in the UK revealed that business confidence plummeted in September, as business leaders nervously await details of Labours first budget. Optimism fell to its lowest level since 2022, with the index dropping to -38 in September, down from -12 in August.

Later this morning, Eurozone inflation will be closely monitored. In August, the change in the price of goods and services fell to 2.2 percent, and if today’s release moves closer to the Bank’s target of 2 percent, it may prompt the European Central Bank to consider reducing interest rates. A continued decline would suggest inflationary pressures have eased.

ECB’s Lagarde has recently voiced she expects that the Eurozone will remain tight until inflation drops – so if inflation falls today, it will raise the likelihood of an October rate cut.

Yesterday evening, the Fed Chairman ‘Jerome Powell’ spoke on the US economy. He signalled that the Federal Reserve are likely to reduce interest rates in smaller proportion rather than a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut, as seen in their last monetary policy decision.

Jermone Powell’s comments showed signs of support for the Dollar – pushing GBP/USD & EUR/USD to weekly lows.

The pound remains bullish and continues its recent good form into the week.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.