Tag Archives: Financenews

Modest Growth & Retail Challenges
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Market Update: UK Economy Struggles for Momentum Amid Modest Growth

After the inflation-driven market swings earlier this week, yesterday’s financial landscape was notably calmer, despite a relatively packed macroeconomic calendar.

The latest UK GDP figures for November, released just before market open, revealed a modest growth of 0.1%, falling slightly short of the 0.2% forecast. This underwhelming figure reinforces the narrative that the UK economy is still struggling to gain meaningful momentum.

Retail Performance Reflects Economic Challenges

A closer look at the report highlights a weak month for supermarkets, with declining sales volumes dragging down overall retail performance. This downturn was only partially offset by increased sales in the clothing and footwear sectors. The dip in consumer spending may signal broader concerns about economic confidence, particularly with key policy changes on the horizon.

Looking ahead, the upcoming National Insurance cuts in April and the planned increase in the minimum wage could have a significant impact on both consumer behaviour and business costs. While some households may see a slight boost in take-home pay, businesses—especially those in retail and hospitality—could face higher wage bills, potentially leading to cautious hiring and investment strategies.

Key Market Watch: US Industrial Production Data

Today’s primary data highlight comes from across the Atlantic, with the US industrial production report for December set for release this afternoon. Investors and market watchers will be keen to see whether manufacturing output has rebounded or if economic uncertainty continues to weigh on industrial activity. Given the global interconnectedness of supply chains, shifts in US production could have ripple effects for UK businesses and financial markets.

What This Means for You

Navigating economic fluctuations requires careful planning and expert insights. If you’re looking to understand how these market trends could impact your business—or how to capitalise on potential opportunities—our experts at Qumoney are here to help. Get in touch today for tailored financial strategies to stay ahead in a shifting economic landscape.

ECB interest rate cut impact on markets
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Market Update: PPI Data and UK Economic Focus Dominate the Week

The week continues with a relatively quiet start, but key economic data and political developments are set to influence markets in the coming days. Here’s what to watch.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) in Focus

This afternoon, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due for release, with forecasts predicting a year-on-year rise to 3.4%, up from 3%. A stronger-than-expected reading could bolster the US dollar further, as it would reflect increasing inflationary pressures, potentially shaping future Federal Reserve policy.

Key Political Week for the UK

In the UK, this is a pivotal week for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, as she prepares to face scrutiny during Prime Minister’s Questions in Parliament tomorrow. The debate will likely focus on government debt and plans to address it, with options including:

  • Tax increases.
  • Reduced government spending.

Labour leader Keir Starmer has hinted at a determined approach to cutting public expenditure, adding political weight to the week’s economic discussions.

UK Economic Data: CPI, GDP, and Retail Sales

On the data front, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release tomorrow morning, with forecasts suggesting inflation will hold steady at 2.6%. Later this week, additional key metrics, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and Retail Sales, will provide further insights into the UK economy’s health.

Currency Markets: Pound’s Mixed Performance

The pound remains under pressure, continuing its downward trend against major currencies. However, there are early signs of recovery today, with the pound gaining:

  • 40 points against the dollar.
  • 10 points against the euro.

This mixed performance reflects ongoing volatility in the foreign exchange markets, as traders assess political and economic developments.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

With significant data releases and political events on the horizon, currency markets are poised for potential volatility. Businesses should take proactive measures to hedge against risks and optimise their international transactions.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today for bespoke strategies to navigate these uncertain times and capitalise on market opportunities.

Market Update: UK Inflation Eases, Boosting the Pound
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Market Update: UK Inflation Eases, Boosting the Pound

The latest UK inflation figures have surprised markets, coming in lower than expected and offering relief amid ongoing economic pressures. Here’s what you need to know.

UK Inflation Falls to 3.4%

This morning’s data revealed that UK inflation fell to 3.4%, below the forecasted 3.8%, surprising economists with a 0.4% drop. This unexpected easing of inflation:

  • Alleviates some of the pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, as she navigates a challenging economic landscape and a bond market sell-off.
  • Has already triggered a jump in the pound, with gains against both the euro and the dollar following the release.

Upcoming Key Data Releases

Today’s focus now shifts to:

  • German Growth Figures: Expected later this morning, providing insights into the health of Europe’s largest economy.
  • EU Industrial Production: Also due this morning, potentially influencing euro performance.
  • US CPI Data: This afternoon, the US inflation figures will be closely monitored, particularly after a series of strong economic results in recent weeks.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

The pound’s upward movement presents an opportunity for businesses dealing in GBP/EUR or GBP/USD transactions to secure favourable rates. Meanwhile, forthcoming data from the US and EU could create additional market volatility. Staying informed is key to managing currency risks and maximising opportunities.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today for tailored strategies to protect your business and capitalise on market shifts.

Market Update: ECB Rate Cut Anticipation Fuels Market Volatility
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Market Outlook: Inflation Reports to Set the Tone for Currency Markets

This week, all eyes are on inflation reports from the UK, US, and Eurozone, which are expected to play a critical role in shaping currency markets. As inflation remains a key driver of central bank policies, these figures will provide crucial insights into how policymakers may respond to ongoing economic challenges.

Last Week’s Highlights: USD Strength and EUR/USD Weakness

  • GBP/USD: The pair hit a 14-month low, driven by stronger-than-expected US labour market data.
    • US unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, outperforming the forecast of 4.2%.
    • Non-farm payrolls surged to 256k, well above the expected 160k, showcasing a robust US job market and an overall strengthening economy.
  • EUR/USD: The euro continues to slide toward parity, trading at its lowest level since November 2022.
    • The euro’s decline has been fuelled by:
      • Rumoured Trump tariffs.
      • Rising concerns over the Eurozone economy.
      • A growing divergence between the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and the European Central Bank’s cautious approach to interest rates.

Pound Sterling Under Pressure

  • The pound remains the worst-performing G10 currency this year, reflecting a combination of weak economic data and market sentiment.
  • Markets are pinning hopes on this week’s UK inflation data to provide some relief and bolster GBP performance.

What to Watch This Week

The inflation figures from the UK, US, and Eurozone will be pivotal in determining how currencies move this week. A higher-than-expected inflation reading could prompt further rate hikes or influence policy changes, driving volatility across major currency pairs.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

Inflation-driven market volatility presents risks and opportunities for businesses with international exposure. Understanding these dynamics is critical for managing currency risks and securing favourable exchange rates.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today for tailored advice to help you navigate this volatile market and protect your financial position.

Pound Lags as Tariff Fears Return Despite UK GDP Surprise
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Market Focus: Key PMI and Inflation Data in the Spotlight

This week kicks off with a focus on PMI figures from the EU, Germany, and France, alongside key inflation and employment updates. Here’s what you need to know about today’s market events and their potential impact.

EU PMI Figures in Focus

Later this morning, the EU, Germany, and France will release their PMI figures, which are expected to come in stronger than last month. If these expectations are met, the data could provide a much-needed boost to the euro, offering temporary support amid ongoing market pressures.

German Inflation Data to Be Released

This afternoon, attention shifts to German CPI figures, with forecasts suggesting that inflation will tick higher for December. The outcome will be closely watched as it could influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy stance ahead of Thursday’s ECB Economic Bulletin, which is expected to reinforce the need for further interest rate cuts.

US Data: Factory Orders and Job Gains

The US Factory Orders report is due late this afternoon and will add to the picture of the US economy’s resilience. Later in the week, markets will turn their attention to Friday’s employment figures, where job gains are expected to remain elevated for December. This ongoing strength supports the narrative of a robust US economy, further bolstering the US dollar.

UK Data: A Quiet Week

It’s a relatively quiet week for UK data, with the Housing Index numbers set to be released tomorrow. With little to drive sterling from the UK side, markets are likely to remain focused on developments in the EU and US.

Currency Outlook

  • The euro edged slightly higher last week, supported by strong Spanish inflation data.
  • The US dollar continues to show strength, reflecting the ongoing economic recovery in the United States.

Businesses trading internationally should remain vigilant as this week’s data could drive currency fluctuations.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

Market volatility tied to PMI figures, inflation data, and employment reports presents opportunities to hedge risks and capitalise on favourable exchange rates.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today for tailored advice to help your business navigate currency markets and protect your financial strategy.

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