Category Archives: Market Insight

A sparse economic calendar has kept markets largely subdued – but behind the scenes, currency movements and anticipation over the US Federal Reserve’s next steps are keeping investors alert.

Eurozone Inflation Falls, But Has Little Market Impact

The only notable data release yesterday was Eurozone producer price inflation, which dropped more than expected – falling to 1.9% in March from 3% previously.
This undershot forecasts of 2.5%, but the release had little immediate effect on trading, with markets largely brushing it aside.

Currency Movements: Sterling Gains, Euro Weakens, Dollar Pressured

Despite the lack of major data, currency markets have seen some volatility over the past 24 hours.
Sterling started the session on a stronger footing, while the euro remained on the defensive. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced renewed pressure overnight – a reflection of ongoing uncertainty ahead of today’s central bank announcement.

Spotlight on the Federal Reserve’s Policy Decision

Today’s main event is the conclusion of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting.
While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the market’s attention will be fixed on the Fed’s tone: Will they hint at any changes to their economic outlook? What’s the latest thinking on tariffs? And crucially, how is the Fed balancing political pressure with its independence?

These insights will be key to shaping global investor sentiment and could lead to notable currency moves.

Eurozone Retail Sales Expected to Stall

Also on today’s radar are the latest Eurozone retail sales figures.
Expectations are low, with forecasters predicting flat results for March. Though not headline-grabbing, this data may still feed into the broader picture of slowing demand across the region.

Make Sense of Market Shifts with Qu Money

With markets moving on central bank commentary, inflation signals, and currency fluctuations, it pays to stay ahead.
For tailored advice on protecting your business from currency risk – or for seizing opportunities in the current environment – get in touch with a Qu Money expert today.

Sterling surged on Wednesday, with the pound-to-dollar exchange rate hitting its highest level since February 2022 — marking a fresh three-year high. This rally reflects both renewed confidence in the pound and continued weakness in the US dollar.

Dollar Weakness Fuels Sterling Rally

The move higher was part of a broader advance in the pound, driven by easing market volatility and the ongoing USD sell-off that has defined the early part of 2025.

Fears of a US economic slowdown continue to weigh on the greenback, offering the pound additional upside potential in the weeks ahead — particularly if today’s economic data disappoints.

Data Deluge from the Eurozone

Today brings a wave of EU data, including:

• French CPI
• German Retail Sales
• Eurozone GDP growth figures

These releases will be watched closely for signs of inflation persistence and economic resilience, particularly as the ECB considers its next policy move.

UK House Prices Weaken

Already released this morning, the UK House Price Index showed a steeper decline than expected, falling 0.6% on the month. While not entirely surprising given the high interest rate environment, this underlines the strain in the UK property sector.

US Data Could Shift Sentiment

Later today, a raft of US economic data is due, including:

• ADP Employment Change
• Q1 GDP
• Personal Income & Spending

Markets will be analysing these numbers for signs of economic momentum — or lack thereof. Any downside surprises could deepen dollar losses and further support GBP/USD gains.

Time to Act on Market Moves

With Sterling showing strength and data driving daily volatility, now is the time to evaluate your FX exposure. Sudden shifts in sentiment could offer opportunity — or risk — depending on how you’re positioned.

Qumoney’s currency experts are on hand to help you make sense of today’s market and capitalise on favourable rates.

Speak to us today for timely insights and bespoke foreign exchange strategies.

It’s been a turbulent 24 hours in currency markets, with the US dollar starting the day strong, only to reverse course ahead of the European close. By the end of the session, the dollar had lost ground, continuing a broader softening trend.

Meanwhile, the euro stayed on the defensive overnight, unable to capitalise on the greenback’s late-session weakness.

Focus Shifts to Key Sentiment Data

Looking ahead, today’s data calendar is packed, offering fresh insight into economic sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic.

In Europe, the spotlight will be on the European Commission’s sentiment indicators for April. Modest declines are expected across most sectors, reflecting the continued strain from inflation and trade uncertainty.

In the US, attention will turn to two key releases:

• JOLTS Job Vacancies (March) – a closely watched indicator of labour market strength.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April) – projected to drop sharply from 92.9 to 87.5, the lowest reading since January 2021.

A weak confidence print could further dampen the dollar’s recovery prospects, particularly as concerns grow over slowing domestic demand and consumer sentiment.

What This Means for FX Markets

With confidence indicators in focus, markets are bracing for further volatility. The direction of the dollar — and broader risk sentiment — could hinge on how today’s data compares to expectations.

For businesses, this environment presents both challenges and opportunities. Exchange rate shifts can impact costs, margins, and the timing of cross-border payments.

Qumoney’s currency specialists are here to help you navigate these market moves and develop a strategy that works for your business.

Contact us today for tailored FX solutions and real-time insights.