Category Archives: FX News

GBP/EUR hits 8-month low

Markets await latest US jobs report

GBP
The Bank of England on Thursday predicted that the U.K. will fall into a recession in the final quarter of this year as it announced its steepest rate hike in nearly three decades, following similar moves by the central banks of the Eurozone and the U.S. as all of them attempt to clampdown on runaway inflation.
The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points its sharpest hike in 27 years to 1.75%. The central bank also warned that inflation in the U.K. could rise to 13% by the end of the year, worsening the country’s already severe cost of living crisis.

Following yesterday’s decision to step up the pace of monetary policy tightening, with the BoE deciding to raise the Bank Rate by half a percentage point, markets will be watching today’s event for clues over whether the next meeting on September 15th could see a similar move.

USD
Today, the US labour market report for July is due. Payrolls, which have been growing at a robust pace of 450k on average so far this year are forecast to rise by 250k in July. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to be unchanged at 3.6%. Barring any major surprise though, the data may not impact the dollar.

In his press conference following the US central bank’s latest decision to raise interest rates, Fed Chair Powell described the labour market as still strong and played down the significance of recent rises in jobless claims.

EUR
Inflation still rising across European countries due primarily to rising energy prices. Inflation in the euro area was up to an all-time high of 8.9% in July 2022, with energy prices up more than 39% year-on-year.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are the European countries with the highest inflation due to a heavy reliance on foreign imports for energy.
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Pound Falls as Recession Fears Rise Amid US Tariff Fallout

Bank of England to raise rates to combat the 40-year high inflation.

GBP

Today, we have the Bank of England policy announcement where there is a huge expectation that interest rates will be hiked by 50bps – its biggest rate hike in 27 years. The bank is expected to raise the rate by half a percentage point to 1.75 per cent in a bid to combat the 40-year high inflation. Markets have fully priced in a double rate hike, therefore anything less than this could see a GBP sell-off causing the pound to decline against most major counterparties. Should we see the Bank of England deliver on its 50bps hike, we may see a brief spike in the pound.

USD

A key measure of U.S. inflationary developments adds to evidence a peak in inflation is nearing, weighing on the Dollar at the start of August.

EUR

ISM prices index dropped to 60 in July from 78.5 in June, the market was looking for a more robust 74.3.

This is the index’s lowest reading since August 2020 and indicates the price pipeline is cooling.

If you or your company are impacted by currency risk please reach out to speak to one of our experts, we can assist with decision-making during this difficult time to help you protect your profits.

The pound has firmed against both the Euro and U.S. Dollar

GBP

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to announce another interest rate rise before releasing its latest inflation and economic growth forecasts.

The Pound has firmed against both the Euro and U.S. Dollar through the latter part of July and early August and the currency’s big test comes with the size of the hike announced and the shape of those forecasts.

Rates are expected to rise again, by 0.25% or 0.5%, increasing costs for millions of borrowers.

USD

Turning to the day ahead, the main release of note will be the latest US non-manufacturing ISM.
 
The consensus is for the index to move lower to 53.5 in July from 55.3 previously. In the Eurozone, retail sales are forecast to stagnate in June, as inflation continues to weigh on disposable incomes.

EUR

The euro was on the defensive as investors pared back their rate hike expectations in the Euro-area once again.

 The deposit rate is now seen as rising to near 1% by year-end and remaining in and around that level throughout 2023.

If you or your company are impacted by currency risk please reach out to speak to one of our experts, we can assist with decision-making during this difficult time to help you protect your profits.

The pound has firmed against both the Euro and U.S. Dollar

GBP

The British Pound started August with solid gains against both the Euro and Dollar but risks decline later this week as the Bank of England faces one of its toughest-ever interest rate decisions as the UK heads toward recession

The Bank of England will deliver its latest interest rate decision on Thursday against a backdrop of soaring prices and multiple warning signs that the UK is heading for a recession this year.

Rates are expected to rise again, by 0.25% or 0.5%, increasing costs for millions of borrowers

That gives the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee a tougher job than perhaps any time since Gordon Brown made the bank independent of government in 1997.

USD

There are no major data releases today. However, in the US the June JOLTS survey of job openings and labour market turnover will provide further detail on employment trends.

The main monthly report for June that was released a few weeks ago showed employment growth slowing but overall, the message seemed to be that the labour market is still tight.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve policymakers at the back end of last week cited the economy is not in recession despite confirmation GDP fell in the first half of 2022. They also remain concerned that labour market tightness may further fuel wage growth.

EUR

Eurozone unemployment remained stable at 6.6% during the month of June 2022 compared with the previous month, the EU’s statistical office Eurostat announced yesterday.

It has decreased by 1.3% compared to last year’s unemployment level as people go back to work after job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The rates differ per EU country. Unemployment was highest in Spain and Greece at 12.6% and 12.3% respectively. The Czech Republic has the lowest unemployment rate in the EU at 2.4%.

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UK house price index update

British Pound starts August with solid gains

GBP

The British Pound started August with solid gains against both the Euro and Dollar but risks decline later this week as the Bank of England faces one of its toughest-ever interest rate decisions as the UK heads toward recession

The Bank of England will deliver its latest interest rate decision on Thursday against a backdrop of soaring prices and multiple warning signs that the UK is heading for a recession this year.

Rates are expected to rise again, by 0.25% or 0.5%, increasing costs for millions of borrowers
That gives the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee a tougher job than perhaps any time since Gordon Brown made the bank independent of government in 1997.

USD

There are no major data releases today. However, in the US the June JOLTS survey of job openings and labour market turnover will provide further detail on employment trends.

The main monthly report for June that was released a few weeks ago showed employment growth slowing but overall, the message seemed to be that the labour market is still tight.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve policymakers at the back end of last week cited the economy is not in recession despite confirmation that GDP fell in the first half of 2022. They also remain concerned that labour market tightness may further fuel wage growth.

EUR

Eurozone unemployment remained stable at 6.6% during the month of June 2022 compared with the previous month, the EU’s statistical office Eurostat announced yesterday.

It has decreased by 1.3% compared to last year’s unemployment level as people go back to work after job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The rates differ per EU country. Unemployment was highest in Spain and Greece at 12.6% and 12.3% respectively. The Czech Republic has the lowest unemployment rate in the EU at 2.4%.

If you or your company are impacted by currency risk please reach out to speak to one of our experts, we can assist with decision-making during this difficult time to help you protect your profits.