Category Archives: FX News

Today’s macro calendar is busier. Already this morning we have got UK GDP for August. Its rose by 0.2% m/m, which was in line with expectations. Later today, we get US CPI figures for September. 

Meanwhile, the release of the Fed’s September minutes provided no significant fresh insight into monetary policy.

The Fed maintained a hawkish tone at the meeting, leaving rates unchanged in a target range of 5.25-5.50%.However, a number of FOMC members have become less hawkish about the need for future rate hikes in recent days.

The European Central Bank will disclose the minutes of last month’s policy meeting, in which interest rates were raised for the tenth time in a row, but the ECB also hinted that it might be the last.

This morning, the ECB’s consumer expectations survey will be closely watched as a gauge of Eurozone inflation. In September, the eurozone’s actual inflation rate fell to 4.3%.

 In the United States, the spotlight will be on the FOMC minutes from the September policy meeting, during which the Fed paused but hinted the possibility of another raise in Q4. In addition, the most recent producer price inflation data will be issued ahead of tomorrow’s CPI inflation report.

The UK highlight is monthly GDP for August which will be released early Thursday morning. key component of GDP is industrial production, which is expected to shrink by 0.1%. Overall, we predict the economy to increase by 0.1% quarter on quarter in Q3, indicating that growth is slowing but not declining.

Several Fed and ECB speakers are scheduled to talk today, and they may provide more up-to-date evaluations of the economy.

On the currency front, the pound has continued to tumble against the dollar, but there are hopes that it will resume its march against both the dollar and the euro in the coming months.

With PPI and CPI being released in the US, Europe, and the UK tomorrow. Another significant discussion point markets will be the UK’s GBP statistics on Thursday, which are predicted to rise to 0.2% from -0.5% MoM.



Looking ahead today. The Labour Party’s leader, Keir Starmer, will address at the party’s annual convention later today. In terms of priorities, he is set to repeat the comments made by the Shadow Chancellor yesterday, arguing that if Labour forms the next government, it will be financially conservative

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A number of Federal Reserve policymakers from the United States are expected to speak. Markets will be looking for reactions to recent developments as well as hints that a US interest rate hike is on the agenda for November.

For the most part, financial markets were relatively quiet yesterday. The quiet data schedule on both sides of the Atlantic played a role.

Indeed, the only noteworthy news was the monthly US jobless claims statistics. At the same time, the release of the all-important September US non-farm payrolls report loomed on the market horizon.

Today’s focus is on the US macro diary, with the major point of interest being the September payrolls data.

The consensus estimate is for a 170,000 increase. September unemployment and average wages data for the United States are also due. A stronger-than-expected payroll data might see the dollar restart its rise, which has been stopped over the last two days.

Yesterday, the UK PMI services data came in higher than predicted at 49.3 (vs. 47.2). Meanwhile, the Pound climbed versus the Euro and the Dollar, but has subsequently plummeted this morning.
The UK PMI construction data are expected to decline for the third consecutive month to 49.9 – if the report falls below 50, it indicates a contraction within the sector, potentially weighing on the Pound.
Today, there is a pretty light data schedule. The main release of note in the United States is initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, comments from a number of central bank officials may be of interest.
However, markets may choose to keep the assets they hold dry ahead of the reporting of September non-farm payrolls in the United States tomorrow.