Category Archives: FX News

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Money News Overview Wednesday 10th January 2024: GBP/EUR exchange rate remains above the 200-day moving average

In terms of data, the Eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in November, well below the 6.5% forecast. However, the release had no effect on the euro. Meanwhile, German industrial production fell 0.7% for November vs. (+0.2% forecast).

There are no significant economic data releases today. Following a 0.3% drop in October, France recorded a 0.5% increase in November industrial production. The overall picture for Eurozone manufacturing activity remains bleak. Instead, the spotlight today will be on central bank speakers as markets refine their forecasts for interest rates in the coming year.

On the currency front, the major pairings remained in tight trading ranges. The dollar edged marginally higher in the limited price activity to notice, supported by a milder tone to risk appetite. In other news, the yen fell overnight on the back of some disappointing earnings reports.

The data calendar is currently somewhat limited. Meanwhile, remarks made by Bank of England Governor Bailey in evidence to the Treasury Select Committee will be watched closely. Speeches by New York Fed President Williams and ECB Board member Schnabel will be of particular interest.

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Money News Overview Tuesday 9th January 2024: All eyes on US inflation reports this week

Markets kick off the day with the UKs British Retail Consortium (BRC) December retail activity report. It has shown in the report that spending has dropped for the festive period likely due to consumer confidence. 

Later today, the EU releases their Unemployment figures where it is expected that the rate of people in the Eurozone who are currently unemployed but seeking work is to remain at 6.5% for the last quarter. 

Looking ahead this week, in the UK there we have the release of the GDP figures whereby markets expect it to show some small growth of 0.2% month on month, alongside this release there will be UK Industrial Production reports in Manufacturing where the growth is expected to come in at 0.3%. 

The key releases this week will be in the US, where they will release their Consumer Price Index figures. Markets currently forecast there to be an increase to 3.2% which is up 0.1% on this time last year. 

Investors will keep a keen eye on the report, with any surprise movement potentially having a heavy impact on the dollar rate. 

As for the dollar, the pound has continued yesterday’s rally rising 50 basis points. As for the pound-euro rate, the pound has continued to hold just above the yearly average. 

Dollar Weakens as Markets Eye ECB Rate Cut Decision
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Money News Overview Friday 5th January 2024: The US labour market report is the focus of attention

The US labour market data for December will be today’s major economic announcement. Payrolls are expected to increase by 170k vs. the previous 199k back in December.

Despite the tight market, pay growth slowed last year, and more indications of this are expected today, with annual growth falling to 3.9% from 4.0% earlier.

Overall, the report is likely to show that interest rates have peaked but will not provide strong evidence for the Federal Reserve to decrease rates sooner.

The December construction PMI survey in the UK is anticipated to show a somewhat slower rate of contraction. According to the consensus forecasts, the headline index will grow from 45.5 to 46.1, remaining below the critical 50 level.

The main currency pairings were trading in very narrow ranges. The dollar was under some marginal downward pressure among the few market movements to note. However, the greenback quickly recovered its losses. Meanwhile, the yen was on the defensive, losing about 1%.

US election dollar impact 2024 announcements this week
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Money News Overview Thursday 4th January 2024: UK services PMI to reach 6-month high

Economic data released earlier this morning showed inflation in France has increased to 3.7 percent. EU-harmonised inflation also increased to 4.1 percent.

Purchasing Managers Index figures in the services sector dominate this morning’s data and are set to be released in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the European Union.

The Euro has been on a downward trend against the Pound this week. A better-than-expected EU PMI release across the board will show signs of support for the Euro.

Markets are forecasting UK PMI figures in the services sector to release at 52.7, remaining above the neutral 50 mark for the second consecutive month. This release demonstrates an expansion in the UK services sector and is a positive for the UK economy.

Inflation in Germany is anticipated to shadow the CPI release in France earlier this morning and also rise to 3.7 percent year-on-year.

This afternoon, US employment figures round off the day. The most significant release is forecasting the monthly change in US employment to rise to 115k.

Investors will keep a close eye on the EU inflation release tomorrow. The total number of goods and services purchased by consumers in the European Union is set to surge to 3 percent.  

German CPI Inflation and UK GDP: Key Market Indicators for Investors
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Money News Overview Wednesday 3rd January 2024: Dollar in the ascendancy

In terms of currency, the dollar was on the rise. After being on the back foot for much of the holiday season, the dollar gained 0.8% against the euro, pound, and yen yesterday. The dollar benefited from the risk-averse environment.

Today’s US data releases include the December ISM manufacturing index. For the 13th month in a row, it remained below the critical 50 mark, indicating a contraction in activity. That is likely to have continued in December, though the rate of decline may have slowed

The November JOLTs survey of labour market turnover will also be issued, offering more insight on labour market conditions in the aftermath of stronger-than-expected job growth. Elsewhere on the data schedule, there are no significant releases in the UK.

The current Fed meeting minutes will be closely scrutinised in terms of monetary policy. Following Chair Powell’s dovish remarks at the December meeting, a 150 basis point rate cut is anticipated before the end of the year.

However, unless there are huge surprises, the data or meeting minutes are unlikely to affect the dollar.

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