Category Archives: FX News

Fresh out this morning, the UK’s inflation rate surprised to the downside, with headline CPI falling to 2.6% in March — lower than the 2.7% analysts had forecast. This unexpected drop, driven largely by falling petrol and diesel prices, has paved the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England next month.

BoE Rate Cut Now on the Cards

With inflation easing more sharply than expected, and growth forecasts under pressure from ongoing global trade tensions, markets are now increasingly confident that the BoE will move to cut rates in May.

The inflation decline also reflects softer consumer demand and growing caution, particularly as the trade backdrop remains unsettled.

More Data on the Way: EU CPI and US Indicators

Later today, the economic calendar picks up pace with key releases from both sides of the Atlantic:

• EU CPI figures will offer a glimpse into how inflation is evolving across the eurozone.
• US Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports will provide crucial insight into the strength of the US economy heading into Q2.

These releases could influence currency movements and shape expectations for central bank policy on both continents.

Powell Speech in Focus

At 6:30pm UK time, all eyes will be on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to speak on the state of the US economy, global trade dynamics, and the Fed’s outlook on interest rates.

His tone could have significant implications for the dollar and wider market sentiment.

GBP/USD Hits 6-Month High on Trade Hopes

In currency markets, Sterling has gained ground, with the pound-to-dollar exchange rate hitting a fresh six-month high yesterday. Reports of positive momentum in UK-US trade negotiations have added to the bullish sentiment surrounding the pound.

Manage Risk, Maximise Opportunity

As inflation trends shift and central banks prepare for policy changes, currency markets are likely to remain dynamic. Whether you’re sending international payments, managing overseas contracts, or hedging exposure, it’s crucial to stay ahead of the curve.

Qumoney’s expert team is here to help. Get in touch today for tailored FX strategies and actionable market insight.

This morning’s UK employment data painted a concerning picture, adding pressure to an already fragile economic outlook. As the UK braces for the impact of US tariffs, job market weakness in February and March has raised fresh concerns for the Bank of England.

Despite decent wage growth, the underlying employment figures suggest a cooling labour market — a worrying signal just as businesses digest both fiscal changes and external trade risks.

BoE Watches Employment Closely

The Bank of England will be watching closely. Recent business surveys already flagged a post-Budget drop in employment, and this month’s national living wage increase adds another layer of complexity for employers.

Balancing wage growth with weakening hiring momentum presents a policy dilemma as the BoE continues to navigate inflation pressures and a slowing economy.

CPI Data Up Next: Will Inflation Ease?

Attention now turns to tomorrow’s UK CPI release. So far this year, inflation has shown signs of stickiness, particularly in the core rate, which has hovered around 3.5%.

• Headline CPI is expected to dip to 2.7% (from 2.8%)
• Core CPI is forecast to hold steady at 3.5%

Any surprises here could influence Sterling and expectations for future BoE action.

ECB Meeting Looms on Thursday

On Thursday, the spotlight shifts to the European Central Bank, where markets are anticipating a further 25-basis-point rate cut — despite the tricky backdrop of rising inflation risks and falling growth.

In March, the ECB already dropped interest rates for the second consecutive month, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5%. A further cut this week would lower it again to 2.25%, reinforcing the bank’s commitment to easing — even amid tariff-driven uncertainty.

Volatility Brings Opportunity

As central banks reassess their paths and tariff impacts ripple across Europe and beyond, volatility is likely to persist in currency markets. Whether you’re buying goods in Europe or paying staff overseas, exchange rate movements could affect your margins.

Qumoney’s FX experts are ready to help you understand what today’s data means for your business and how to respond effectively.

Get in touch now for bespoke currency solutions and market insights.

With Easter approaching, it’s a quiet day for economic data, but markets remain anything but calm. Volatility from the escalating US-China trade dispute continues to ripple across global markets, leaving investors cautious.

Dollar Sell-Off Boosts Safe Havens

Over the past five days, we’ve seen a sharp sell-off in the US dollar, as uncertainty around tariffs pushes investors towards safer assets. The euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen have all benefited from this defensive market tone.

Pound Falls to November Lows Against the Euro

The GBP/EUR exchange rate has dropped to its lowest level since November 2023, highlighting continued pressure on Sterling. While not ideal for euro buyers, this dip presents a good opportunity for those looking to sell euros at strong rates.

Looking Ahead: Inflation and ECB in Focus

While today’s data calendar is light, the remainder of the week holds two key events that could shake things up:

• UK Inflation (Wednesday) – A critical gauge of the Bank of England’s future rate path.
• ECB Interest Rate Announcement (Thursday) – With euro strength in the spotlight, any hint of policy shifts will be closely scrutinised.

Stay Ahead in Uncertain Times

With geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions creating an unpredictable backdrop, now is the time to be strategic. Whether you’re making payments in euros or managing overseas exposure, Qumoney’s FX specialists can help you plan ahead.

Get in touch today to explore how we can support your business with expert market insight and tailored currency solutions.