Category Archives: FX News

US election dollar impact 2024 announcements this week
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Money News Overview Friday 5th July: Lack of volatility shows signs of political stability for the pound

Labour’s Victory and Upcoming French Elections Stir Market Sentiments

Overnight, the Labour Party became the new government in the UK, a development that was widely anticipated. Consequently, the markets had already priced in a Labour win, resulting in little to no movement for the pound. However, with the second round of the French elections coming up on Sunday, we can expect increased market volatility heading into next week.

The stability of the British pound following Labour’s victory indicates a sense of political steadiness, which is reassuring for investors. In contrast, the potential win of the far-right political party in France’s upcoming election introduces a layer of uncertainty, likely to affect the currency market.

Yesterday, the United States celebrated Independence Day, leading to a pause in economic data releases. As markets reopen today, all eyes are on the release of Non-Farm Payrolls, a critical indicator of the current state of the US economy.

On the currency front, the pound has maintained its strength against the euro, reflecting further stability and resilience. Additionally, the pound has shown significant strength against the dollar, currently trading at its highest level since June 13th.

For more detailed insights on how these developments could impact your business or to take advantage of market volatility, please reach out to speak with one of our experts.

Global market stability helped the Pound Sterling hold off Euro strength following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to decrease interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50% yesterday
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Money News Overview Thursday 4th July: Dollar falls after Powell’s comments

Breaking News: Britons Head to the Polls in Pivotal Election

Today, Britons are casting their votes in a parliamentary election that is widely expected to bring Keir Starmer’s Labour Party to power, ending Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s 14-year Conservative tenure.

Opinion polls indicate that Starmer’s centre-left party is on track for a landslide victory. Many voters are seeking change after years of internal conflict and turmoil within the Conservative Party, which has seen five prime ministers in the past eight years.

Despite calling the election months earlier than planned, Sunak has recently shifted his campaign focus from securing a fifth consecutive Conservative victory to warning about the potential risks of an unchallenged Labour Party in parliament.

If the opinion polls are accurate, Britain will join other European nations in holding their governments accountable for the cost-of-living crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, unlike France, Britain appears to be moving towards the centre-left rather than the far-right.

In other news, the United States is observing a market holiday in celebration of Independence Day. Across the Atlantic, the main European release of interest is the European Central Bank’s June meeting account, offering additional insights into the central bank’s recent decision to decrease interest rates by 25 basis points.

For more detailed insights on how these developments could impact your business or to take advantage of market volatility, please reach out to one of our experts.

Pound vs Euro exchange rate reaction to tariffs
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Money News Overview Tuesday 2nd July: Election week likely to provide further volatility for the pound

Today’s economic calendar kicks off with the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. Investors are eager to see if the recent interest rate cut has made an impact, with markets anticipating a slight drop to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent.

Attention then shifts to major speeches this afternoon from European Central Bank President Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Their remarks could offer valuable insights into future monetary policy.

The rest of the week is dominated by US data, which might pressure the pound further against the dollar. Key US releases include the ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

Political events are also in the spotlight, with the UK general election on Thursday. The uncertainty surrounding the potential for a Labour government is expected to create currency market volatility.

Following the UK election, the second round of the French elections begins on Sunday, likely causing additional market fluctuations as we head into next week.

On the currency front, the pound remains below the 34-month highs seen in June. With limited UK data and the general election this week, there could be opportunities to leverage limit orders. Meanwhile, the dollar is poised to gain further strength against the pound following the week’s data releases.

For more insights on how these developments could impact your business or to capitalise on market volatility, please reach out to one of our experts.

US CPI inflation due today
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Money News Overview Monday 1st July: Euro strengthens after French election results

Euro strengthens after French election results. This week, the spotlight is on key economic data releases and the progress of the UK and EU general elections.

The GBPEUR hit a 21-day low after Le Pen’s party underperformed, reducing the likelihood of a far-right overall majority in the French parliament. Markets are now anticipating the second round of votes, with a ‘hung’ parliament being the most probable outcome.

Meanwhile, GBPUSD is trading near a weekly high. This week’s market calendar includes a mix of crucial US data releases and the UK’s election, which is expected to introduce some market volatility.

A significant event to watch is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the European Central Bank’s conference tomorrow. Investors will be closely monitoring his comments for any hints about a potential rate cut in September. Recently, Powell emphasized the strength of the US labour market, steering away from discussions on reducing interest rates.

In the US, the highlight of the week will be Friday’s non-farm jobs report, with forecasts predicting the addition of 195,000 jobs.

For more detailed insights on how these developments could impact your business or to take advantage of market volatility, please reach out to speak with one of our experts.

Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Forecast as UK-EU Ties Strengthen
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Money News Overview Friday 28th June: Spotlight is on inflation figures

Yesterday saw a steady stream of data releases. The Eurozone EC sentiment indices for June painted a familiar picture to the previous week’s PMIs, indicating a slowdown in activity as we near the end of Q2. Despite this, the data didn’t significantly impact the currency market.

Today, the focus is on inflation. The Eurozone will see flash HICP inflation estimates for June from France, Italy, and Spain. In the United States, we’ll get the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, for May. These releases carry event risk for their respective currencies, as central banks are particularly focused on inflation indices.

Looking ahead to next week, the French and UK elections are poised to significantly impact the pound sterling and the euro. Markets have a clear idea of potential outcomes, and if their predictions hold, the Pound-Euro exchange rate might remain stable at current levels.

In the UK, the outcomes are considered low risk, even if the Conservatives, led by Rishi Sunak, achieve an unexpected victory. Meanwhile, the French parliamentary vote promises to be more intriguing, with various risk scenarios that could influence market movements.

For more detailed insights on how these events could affect your business or to take advantage of market volatility, please reach out to speak with one of our experts.

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