Author Archives: Ricky Kielkowski

Market Update: UK Inflation Eases, Boosting the Pound
Posted on

Market Update: UK Inflation Eases, Boosting the Pound

The latest UK inflation figures have surprised markets, coming in lower than expected and offering relief amid ongoing economic pressures. Here’s what you need to know.

UK Inflation Falls to 3.4%

This morning’s data revealed that UK inflation fell to 3.4%, below the forecasted 3.8%, surprising economists with a 0.4% drop. This unexpected easing of inflation:

  • Alleviates some of the pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, as she navigates a challenging economic landscape and a bond market sell-off.
  • Has already triggered a jump in the pound, with gains against both the euro and the dollar following the release.

Upcoming Key Data Releases

Today’s focus now shifts to:

  • German Growth Figures: Expected later this morning, providing insights into the health of Europe’s largest economy.
  • EU Industrial Production: Also due this morning, potentially influencing euro performance.
  • US CPI Data: This afternoon, the US inflation figures will be closely monitored, particularly after a series of strong economic results in recent weeks.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

The pound’s upward movement presents an opportunity for businesses dealing in GBP/EUR or GBP/USD transactions to secure favourable rates. Meanwhile, forthcoming data from the US and EU could create additional market volatility. Staying informed is key to managing currency risks and maximising opportunities.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today for tailored strategies to protect your business and capitalise on market shifts.

Market Update: Narrow Trading Ranges and Focus on US Labour Data
Posted on

Market Update: Narrow Trading Ranges and Focus on US Labour Data

Currency markets traded within narrow ranges yesterday, as limited US trading activity and a quiet overseas data schedule subdued price movements. Here’s the latest on what’s driving the markets and what to expect.

Sterling on the Defensive as Dollar Edges Higher

Among yesterday’s modest movements:

  • Sterling remained under pressure, reflecting ongoing concerns about the UK’s economic outlook.
  • The US dollar rose slightly, supported by its status as a safe haven amid a lack of major market catalysts.

US Labour Market Data in Focus

Today, the market spotlight turns to the December US labour market data, which could introduce event risk for the dollar. Recent months have shown signs of a slowing labour market, though the data has been volatile.

Key expectations include:

  • Payroll growth: Forecasted at +160k.
  • Unemployment rate: Expected to hold steady at 4.2%.
  • Average earnings growth: Anticipated at +4.0% year on year.

Stronger-than-expected results could further support the dollar, while softer data may raise questions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory in 2025.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

Narrow trading ranges may provide a brief reprieve, but today’s labour market data has the potential to reignite volatility. Businesses trading in GBP/USD or EUR/USD should prepare for potential price swings as markets digest the US employment figures.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today to discuss strategies for managing currency exposure and seizing market opportunities.

Markets Jittery as US Imposes 104% Tariffs on Chinese Imports
Posted on

Market Update: GBP Weakens as Focus Shifts to US and European Developments

With no UK economic data scheduled for the remainder of the week, market attention has turned to key events unfolding in Europe and the United States. Here’s the latest on the factors driving currency movements.

German Industrial Output Rises

In Germany, industrial output for November posted a solid 1.5% increase, rebounding sharply from the -1% decline in October. This improvement highlights signs of recovery in the Eurozone’s largest economy, providing some support to the euro.

US Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus

Markets are looking ahead to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show an increase of 160k jobs. A stronger-than-expected result could solidify GBP/USD trading at a one-year low, reflecting the sustained strength of the US dollar.

Speeches from several Federal Reserve policymakers today may also provide further support to the dollar, which has gained momentum thanks to:

  • Optimism following Trump’s election.
  • The Fed’s projections for rate cuts this year.

GBP/USD Falls Amid UK Economic Challenges

The GBP/USD currency pair has dropped more than 9% since late September, driven by:

  • Soaring UK borrowing costs.
  • Increasing pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faces difficult decisions around borrowing, spending cuts, and tax increases—measures likely to weigh on the UK’s economic growth.

The pound has become the worst-performing currency in the G10 this week, with a fierce selloff highlighting investor concerns as we head into the new year.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

The pound’s weakness and the dollar’s continued strength present challenges for businesses involved in international transactions. However, this market volatility also offers opportunities to hedge currency risks and secure competitive rates.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today for bespoke strategies to protect your business and capitalise on these market dynamics.

Markets Fragile Ahead of Easter as Pound Hits Low Against Euro
Posted on

Market Update: German Retail Sales, EU Confidence, and US Data in Focus

Today promises to be a busy day for markets, with key data releases from Germany, the EU, and the US set to drive sentiment and currency movements. Here’s what you need to know.

German Retail Sales Beat Expectations

This morning, German retail sales figures were released, showing a 0.6% monthly rise, surpassing expectations of a 1.9% decline. On a yearly basis, retail sales grew by 2.5%, further highlighting the resilience of Germany’s retail sector amid broader economic challenges.

EU Confidence and PPI Data Ahead

Later this morning, the focus will shift to the EU Business & Consumer Confidence Index, which will provide insight into economic sentiment across the Eurozone. This will be followed by the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, offering further clues about inflation trends in the region.

Key US Data: ADP Employment and Petroleum Reports

This afternoon, attention turns to the US with two major releases:

  • The ADP National Employment Report, which estimates the monthly change in US employment excluding farming and government sectors.
  • The Weekly Petroleum Report, a key indicator for energy markets and inflation expectations.

US Dollar Strengthens Further

Over the past 24 hours, the US dollar has strengthened, supported by:

  • Above-consensus US economic data, confirming rising inflationary pressures.
  • Lowering odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with markets now expecting no cuts until at least July.

In the past 30 days, the dollar has gained:

  • 2.75% against the pound.
  • Nearly 3% against the euro.

This robust performance underscores the resilience of the US economy and its continued influence on global markets.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

The stronger dollar and mixed economic data across Europe present both risks and opportunities. Businesses should monitor these developments to optimise their international transactions and hedge against volatility.

Speak to Qumoney’s experts today for tailored strategies to safeguard your business and capitalise on market movements.

Market Update: Pound Gains as Key Economic Events Approach
Posted on

Market Update: US Data Boosts Dollar as PMI Revisions Weigh on Europe and UK

Recent economic data underscores the evolving dynamics of global markets, with the US dollar strengthening on the back of positive surprises and a favourable economic outlook.

US Jobless Claims Hit 8-Month Low

The latest US weekly initial jobless claims fell to an eight-month low of 211k, outperforming the forecasted 222k. While seasonality may have influenced the data, it highlights the resilience of the US labour market.

Additionally, the US manufacturing PMI was revised higher for December, contrasting with downward revisions for both the Eurozone and UK PMIs, which remain in contraction territory.

Dollar Dominates Currency Markets

The US dollar strengthened significantly yesterday:

  • Rising 0.8% against the euro.
  • Gaining more than 1% against sterling.

This surge was driven by better-than-expected US data, a stronger GDP outlook, and optimism surrounding the potential policy mix of the Trump administration. These factors have reinforced confidence in the dollar, putting pressure on other major currencies.

What to Watch Today

Markets are now focused on the US manufacturing ISM for December, a key release that could further influence sentiment and currency movements. Meanwhile, remarks by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane are expected to provide insights into the Eurozone’s economic trajectory and policy direction.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

The stronger dollar and diverging economic conditions highlight the importance of staying informed. Whether you’re managing international payments or navigating currency risks, understanding these trends is essential.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today to discuss tailored strategies to safeguard your business and capitalise on market opportunities.

1 … 12 13 14 15 16 … 67