Author Archives: Ricky Kielkowski

Pound Recovery & Trump’s Trade Policies Impact Markets
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Market Update: Pound Recovery Amid Trump’s Trade Policies

It was a light day for economic data, with no major releases impacting the markets. However, focus this week has been dominated by US politics, particularly new tariffs and trade policies introduced by President Donald Trump and his administration.

US Trade Policy and Market Impact

Overnight, Donald Trump threatened to double taxes on foreign nationals and companies, escalating tensions over discriminatory levies on US businesses. The threat, outlined in a White House memo detailing Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policy, has raised concerns about global trade relations and market stability.

Pound’s Performance and Recovery

At the start of the year, the British pound was the worst-performing major currency, following soft economic data that suggested the UK government might struggle to meet revenue targets. This led to a negative market sentiment, impacting UK bonds and pushing up government borrowing costs, which contributed to the pound’s decline.

However, recent market conditions and data suggest a potential recovery. The pound has begun to claw back some losses against both the US dollar and the euro, driven by shifting investor sentiment and broader market dynamics.

Key Data Releases Ahead

Looking ahead, markets will closely monitor the upcoming UK House Prices Index tomorrow, followed by Consumer Confidence and PMI figures on Friday. These data points will provide further insight into the UK’s economic trajectory and potential currency movements.

What This Means for You

With changing trade policies and shifting currency dynamics, staying informed is essential. If you’re looking to understand how these market trends impact your business or capitalise on currency fluctuations, our experts at Qumoney are here to help. Get in touch today for expert financial guidance tailored to your needs.

UK PMI Data Surprise as Eurozone Results Mixed and US Jobs Data Awaited
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Market Update: Market Movements Amid Trump’s Inauguration and UK Employment Data

Yesterday saw limited activity in the financial markets, with the primary focus being the inauguration of President Donald Trump. His decision to invite high-profile business leaders underscored his administration’s commitment to economic growth, private sector collaboration, and fostering innovation, job creation, and global competitiveness.

Currency Market Reactions

Contrary to market expectations, the British pound surged against the US dollar yesterday afternoon, gaining 130 points by 4 pm. This movement reflected a positive market reaction to political developments, despite ongoing uncertainties.

However, while the pound showed resilience against the dollar, it continued to face downward pressure against the euro, highlighting the complex dynamics shaping global exchange rates.

UK Employment Figures and Wage Growth

This morning, attention turned to the release of UK employment data. While projections suggested no change in the ILO Unemployment Rate, the actual figures came in at 4.4%.

Additionally, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that both basic pay (excluding bonuses) and average weekly earnings grew at an annual rate of 5.6% during the three months leading up to November. This suggests real wage growth, which could influence future consumer spending and policy decisions.

Market Outlook: What’s Next?

Market movements this week are likely to be shaped by President Trump’s early days in office, as well as ongoing economic releases. The upcoming January flash PMIs for major advanced economies and further UK labour market statistics will be key data points to watch.

What This Means for You

Navigating market volatility requires strategic insights. If you want to understand how these trends affect your business or explore ways to capitalise on currency movements, our experts at Qumoney are here to help. Get in touch today for tailored financial guidance.

Modest Growth & Retail Challenges
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Market Update: UK Economy Struggles for Momentum Amid Modest Growth

After the inflation-driven market swings earlier this week, yesterday’s financial landscape was notably calmer, despite a relatively packed macroeconomic calendar.

The latest UK GDP figures for November, released just before market open, revealed a modest growth of 0.1%, falling slightly short of the 0.2% forecast. This underwhelming figure reinforces the narrative that the UK economy is still struggling to gain meaningful momentum.

Retail Performance Reflects Economic Challenges

A closer look at the report highlights a weak month for supermarkets, with declining sales volumes dragging down overall retail performance. This downturn was only partially offset by increased sales in the clothing and footwear sectors. The dip in consumer spending may signal broader concerns about economic confidence, particularly with key policy changes on the horizon.

Looking ahead, the upcoming National Insurance cuts in April and the planned increase in the minimum wage could have a significant impact on both consumer behaviour and business costs. While some households may see a slight boost in take-home pay, businesses—especially those in retail and hospitality—could face higher wage bills, potentially leading to cautious hiring and investment strategies.

Key Market Watch: US Industrial Production Data

Today’s primary data highlight comes from across the Atlantic, with the US industrial production report for December set for release this afternoon. Investors and market watchers will be keen to see whether manufacturing output has rebounded or if economic uncertainty continues to weigh on industrial activity. Given the global interconnectedness of supply chains, shifts in US production could have ripple effects for UK businesses and financial markets.

What This Means for You

Navigating economic fluctuations requires careful planning and expert insights. If you’re looking to understand how these market trends could impact your business—or how to capitalise on potential opportunities—our experts at Qumoney are here to help. Get in touch today for tailored financial strategies to stay ahead in a shifting economic landscape.

UK Inflation Falls to 2.6% as Markets Anticipate BoE Rate Cut
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Market Update: UK Growth Slows as Stagflation Concerns Rise

The latest economic data highlights challenges for the UK economy, with weaker-than-expected growth figures and signs of underlying economic weakness. Meanwhile, attention shifts to the US data releases later today.

UK Economy Grows by Just 0.1% in November

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported this morning that the UK economy grew by a modest 0.1% month-on-month in November, missing the forecasted 0.2%.

Additionally, industrial and manufacturing output showed a month-on-month decline, indicating underlying economic fragility and further challenges to growth. These figures have raised concerns about the UK’s economic outlook.

Stagflation Fears Weigh on the Pound

The weaker economic data has led to concerns about stagflation, a period of low growth and high inflation. These conditions are increasing speculation that the Bank of England may opt to reduce interest rates at their next monetary policy meeting to stimulate growth.

Following the release of this data, the pound weakened against both the euro and the dollar, reflecting investor unease over the UK’s economic prospects.

US Data in Focus

This afternoon, the market will turn its attention to US economic data, including:

  • Unemployment claims: Expected to rise to 210k, providing a snapshot of the US labour market.
  • Retail sales for December: Forecasted to increase by 0.6%, offering insights into US consumer spending trends.

These releases could influence the dollar’s performance and provide further clarity on the strength of the US economy.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

The combination of weaker UK data, pound depreciation, and upcoming US releases highlights the importance of staying prepared for market volatility. Businesses with exposure to GBP/USD or GBP/EUR should consider strategies to hedge currency risks and take advantage of favourable movements.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today for personalised advice on navigating these market conditions and protecting your business.

ECB interest rate cut impact on markets
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Market Update: PPI Data and UK Economic Focus Dominate the Week

The week continues with a relatively quiet start, but key economic data and political developments are set to influence markets in the coming days. Here’s what to watch.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) in Focus

This afternoon, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due for release, with forecasts predicting a year-on-year rise to 3.4%, up from 3%. A stronger-than-expected reading could bolster the US dollar further, as it would reflect increasing inflationary pressures, potentially shaping future Federal Reserve policy.

Key Political Week for the UK

In the UK, this is a pivotal week for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, as she prepares to face scrutiny during Prime Minister’s Questions in Parliament tomorrow. The debate will likely focus on government debt and plans to address it, with options including:

  • Tax increases.
  • Reduced government spending.

Labour leader Keir Starmer has hinted at a determined approach to cutting public expenditure, adding political weight to the week’s economic discussions.

UK Economic Data: CPI, GDP, and Retail Sales

On the data front, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release tomorrow morning, with forecasts suggesting inflation will hold steady at 2.6%. Later this week, additional key metrics, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and Retail Sales, will provide further insights into the UK economy’s health.

Currency Markets: Pound’s Mixed Performance

The pound remains under pressure, continuing its downward trend against major currencies. However, there are early signs of recovery today, with the pound gaining:

  • 40 points against the dollar.
  • 10 points against the euro.

This mixed performance reflects ongoing volatility in the foreign exchange markets, as traders assess political and economic developments.

How Could This Impact Your Business?

With significant data releases and political events on the horizon, currency markets are poised for potential volatility. Businesses should take proactive measures to hedge against risks and optimise their international transactions.

Contact Qumoney’s experts today for bespoke strategies to navigate these uncertain times and capitalise on market opportunities.

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