Monthly Archives: June 2025

UK PMI data surprise
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UK PMI Surprise Lifts Sentiment as Markets Await US Data

This morning’s PMI data has delivered a mixed picture across Europe, but a stronger-than-expected result from the UK is giving sterling some support. Focus now shifts to key labour and services reports out of the US later today.

German and French PMI Results Mixed

Germany and France kicked off the day’s economic releases with PMI data that painted a mixed picture of economic activity.
While some sectors showed modest improvement, others lagged, offering little in the way of clear direction for investors.

Eurozone PMI Improves, But Euro Unmoved

The broader Eurozone PMI reading came in positive, indicating some recovery across the bloc.
However, the euro failed to gain traction on the back of the data, as markets appear to be awaiting stronger signs of sustained momentum before shifting sentiment.

UK PMI Surprises to the Upside

In contrast, the UK PMI figures were more upbeat.
The latest numbers showed expansion into the 50s, surprising to the upside by 0.7 percentage points compared to last month’s reading of 49.
This improvement points to renewed economic momentum and may give sterling a modest lift heading into the afternoon session.

US Employment and Services Data in Focus

Later today, attention turns to two important US economic indicators:

  • The ADP National Employment Report, offering an early snapshot of private sector job growth
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey, a key gauge of the health of the US services sector

These releases will help shape expectations for the US economy and Federal Reserve policy, particularly after recent signs of softening in certain sectors.

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Dollar Weakens as Markets Eye ECB Rate Cut Decision
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Dollar Weakens as Markets Eye ECB Rate Cut Decision

It’s been a subdued start to the week on the economic data front, but markets remain tense ahead of Thursday’s key European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement.

US Manufacturing Disappoints

The main release of note came from the US, where the ISM Manufacturing Index for May fell short of expectations.
The weaker-than-forecast reading reinforced concerns that the US manufacturing sector remains under sustained pressure – a reflection of broader uncertainty around trade and global demand.

Currency Markets Hold Steady

Despite the soft US data, key currency pairs traded in narrow ranges throughout Monday and into overnight trading.
With no major surprises or shifts in sentiment, traders largely held their positions while awaiting larger market catalysts.

Dollar on the Back Foot

The US dollar remains on the defensive against its major counterparts, weighed down by persistent trade and tariff-related uncertainty.
Investors are growing increasingly cautious as negotiations and global supply chain issues continue to cloud the outlook for the US economy.

All Eyes on ECB Policy Decision

Looking ahead, attention turns to Thursday’s ECB meeting, which is likely to be the week’s defining event.
Markets are widely anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut, with policymakers under pressure to respond to sluggish growth and persistent low inflation across the euro area.

Any surprises in tone or future guidance from the ECB could trigger sharp currency moves, particularly for the euro and its major crosses.

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UK house price index update
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UK House Price Index Rises as Euro Gains on Trade Tensions

This week has kicked off with a series of mixed data releases, ongoing trade tensions, and growing anticipation ahead of key central bank announcements. Here’s what’s moving the markets.

UK House Prices Edge Higher

This morning’s UK House Price Index data showed a modest 0.1% rise month-on-month, with prices up 3.5% year-on-year.
While not a dramatic increase, it continues to reflect a steady recovery in the UK housing market amid improving economic sentiment.

Mixed PMI Results from France and Germany

PMI figures released earlier for France and Germany painted a mixed picture:

  • France posted a positive reading, suggesting expansion
  • Germany slipped into contraction territory with a negative result

These results highlight ongoing divergence within the euro area’s largest economies and may influence the tone of the ECB’s upcoming policy statement.

US Construction and PMI Data Due Later

Later this afternoon, attention shifts to the United States, where markets will digest new PMI and construction figures.
These reports will help set the tone ahead of Friday’s key Non-Farm Payrolls release – a major indicator for US labour market health.

ECB and US Payrolls Take Centre Stage This Week

The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday, with a potential rate cut already priced in by many analysts.
Then on Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, likely providing further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction.

Dollar Weakens Amid US-China Trade Frictions

Over the weekend, new US-China trade tensions emerged, with China accusing the US of failing to meet trade agreement commitments.
The renewed friction has weakened the dollar and rattled broader market sentiment, giving a lift to the euro as investors shift focus.

Stay Informed with Qu Money

From housing data to central bank decisions and global trade tensions, the coming days could bring sharp currency moves.
For expert advice on navigating volatile FX conditions or managing currency risk for your business, get in touch with a Qu Money specialist today.