Monthly Archives: May 2025

UK inflation surprise
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UK Inflation Surprise Puts Spotlight on Bank of England

This morning’s UK inflation figures have come in hotter than expected, adding fresh uncertainty to the Bank of England’s interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, markets await further central bank commentary and US economic data.

Inflation Hits 3.5%, Surpassing Expectations

UK inflation jumped to 3.5% in today’s reading, beating economists’ forecasts of 3.3% and up sharply from 2.6% the previous month.
This 0.2 percentage point surprise is likely to prompt a rethink of the Bank of England’s path for interest rates over the rest of the year.

While markets had priced in multiple rate cuts for 2025, today’s data may force policymakers to adopt a more cautious approach. A single additional cut now looks more likely than multiple moves.

Central Bank Speeches in the Eurozone

Across the Channel, today brings two important speeches from European Central Bank policymakers – one already delivered at 7am and another due at 5pm.
These updates are closely monitored by investors for signals on future interest rate policy within the euro area, especially as inflation and growth concerns continue to evolve.

Light Data Day for the US

It’s a quiet one for US data releases today, with only the weekly petroleum status report due at 3:30pm.
This report, which measures changes in commercial crude oil inventories, typically has a muted impact on currency markets unless it deviates significantly from expectations.

US Data Tomorrow: Employment and Housing in Focus

Looking ahead to tomorrow, attention turns to two key releases from the United States:

  • Weekly unemployment claims are expected at 230,000, slightly above last week’s 229,000 – still a positive sign for the labour market.
  • Existing home sales are forecast at 4.1 million, up from 4.02 million the previous month, suggesting continued resilience in the US housing sector.

Both data points will offer valuable insights into the strength of the US economy and could influence dollar sentiment.

Stay Ahead with Qu Money

With inflation surprises, central bank signals, and key data shaping the global currency landscape, staying informed is crucial.
For personalised support in managing your FX exposure – or to take advantage of opportunities amid market shifts – speak to a Qu Money expert today.

eurozone consumer confidence
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Markets Tread Carefully as Confidence and Central Bank Comments Loom

Despite a relatively full economic calendar to start the week, financial markets adopted a cautious tone yesterday. While currency moves remained contained, upcoming confidence data and central bank speeches could bring fresh momentum.

Dollar Starts Weak, Then Rebounds

The US dollar opened the week under pressure but has since recovered some ground.
Traders remain wary ahead of key data and policy commentary, with many opting for a wait-and-see approach after recent volatility.

EU-UK Relations Reset Provides Calm, But Minimal Market Reaction

An announcement signalling a reset in post-Brexit relations between the EU and the UK provided a constructive backdrop for both the euro and the pound.
However, the news failed to significantly shift market sentiment, with most investors taking a measured stance as broader global risks continue to weigh.

Eyes on Eurozone Consumer Confidence

The main data point to watch in the near term is the flash estimate of eurozone consumer confidence for May.
Forecasts suggest a modest improvement, with expectations rising slightly to -16 from -16.7. While this would mark a small step forward, sentiment across the bloc remains fragile.

Central Bank Speakers in the Spotlight

Beyond data, markets will be tuning in to comments from several central bank officials over the coming days.
With inflation, growth and interest rates all under scrutiny, any fresh clues on future policy direction could move markets – particularly for the euro, dollar, and pound.

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With confidence indicators and monetary policy comments taking centre stage, staying ahead of market sentiment is more important than ever.
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Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Forecast as UK-EU Ties Strengthen
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Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Forecast Rises on UK-EU Reset

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is experiencing a mild upswing – and the trend looks set to continue. Despite fading global equity volatility and ongoing inflation concerns, stronger UK-EU ties are lifting sterling sentiment.

Pound Strengthens as UK and EU Near Trade Agreement

A major reset in UK-EU relations is on the horizon, with both sides expected to announce a new agreement that improves trade flows and cooperation.
Historically, the Pound tends to perform better when the UK is seen as closely aligned with Europe – and markets are responding accordingly.

This renewed optimism around trade and political stability is helping to support sterling’s recent gains against the euro.

Dollar Peaks Then Retreats Post US-China Deal

The US dollar initially rallied following the announcement of the US-China tariff deal. However, as the week progressed, those gains faded.
The greenback has since settled into a more stable, range-bound pattern, with markets awaiting further cues on US policy and economic direction.

Key Focus: May Flash PMI Data and Central Bank Insights

Looking ahead, the big market driver in the coming week will be the release of May’s flash PMI readings across major developed economies.
In the Eurozone, additional data includes several sentiment polls and the much-anticipated ECB Monetary Policy Meeting minutes.

These releases will offer insight into how businesses and consumers are faring amid ongoing inflationary pressures and slowing growth concerns.

Busy Data Week for the UK

The UK also has a packed calendar, with reports due on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment.
Each of these indicators will be closely watched to gauge economic resilience – and could play a role in shaping the next move for sterling.

Stay Ahead with Qu Money

As major economic releases and political resets unfold, it’s essential to keep a close eye on currency trends.
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Markets await the UK growth figures forecast as the pound strengthens on US-China trade talks and EU ties. Read today’s update from Qu Money.
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Pound Strengthens as Markets Await UK Growth Figures

It’s a relatively quiet day for economic data, but that hasn’t stopped the pound from gaining ground. Market sentiment remains upbeat ahead of key growth reports tomorrow.

German Inflation Data Meets Expectations

This morning’s sole release was German inflation data, which came in as forecast at 2.1%.
The figures provided no surprises and had little impact on broader market movements, keeping the focus on upcoming events.

Attention Shifts to UK and EU Growth Reports

Tomorrow morning brings the release of UK GDP figures at 7am, followed later in the day by growth data from the EU.
Both will be key indicators of economic momentum and could influence near-term currency movements, particularly for sterling and the euro.

US Retail Sales and Industrial Output in Focus

Across the Atlantic, US retail sales and industrial production figures are due tomorrow.
These releases will be closely watched for clues on the strength of US economic activity, especially as markets weigh the impact of recent trade developments.

Pound Pushes Higher on Positive Sentiment

In the past 24 hours, the pound has strengthened against both the euro and the US dollar.
This uptick is largely driven by renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade negotiations, which have buoyed risk appetite and boosted GBP.

UK-EU Summit Lifts Sterling

Sterling has also benefited from reports that the UK is seeking to deepen ties with the EU, with a summit scheduled for 19th May.
Investors see this as a sign of improving cooperation and longer-term economic stability, supporting demand for the pound.

Plan Ahead with Qu Money

As key growth data and international developments continue to shape currency markets, it’s important to stay informed and responsive.
For expert support in navigating today’s market – or to explore strategies that protect your business from volatility – speak to a Qu Money specialist today.

Dollar Gains on Tariff Talks as Markets Await US Inflation Data
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Dollar Strengthens on US-China Trade Progress as Inflation Data Looms

Yesterday’s major trade news and upcoming US inflation figures are keeping financial markets busy. Here’s what’s moving the currency markets today – and what to watch next.

Tariff Cuts Cement US-China Trade Truce

Following up on earlier reports, the US and China have now formally agreed to slash tariffs on most traded goods.

  • The US will reduce duties on Chinese imports to 30%
  • China will cut taxes on US goods to 10%

This step back from heightened trade tensions has lifted global market sentiment and added support to the US dollar.

Dollar Dominates, Sterling Holds Firm

The dollar was the clear winner in yesterday’s currency trading, gaining between 1% and 1.5% against both the euro and the yen.
Sterling, meanwhile, maintained a slightly firmer tone, buoyed by broader market calm, despite a relatively neutral domestic data release.

UK Labour Market Data Matches Forecasts

This morning’s UK labour figures delivered few surprises:

  • Unemployment edged up to 4.5% in March
  • Average earnings growth slowed to 5.5% year-on-year

Despite the softening in wage growth, the figures landed roughly in line with expectations and had little immediate impact on sterling during early trading.

Focus Shifts to US CPI Inflation Figures

Later today, the spotlight moves to the US, with the release of April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Markets expect the headline inflation rate to hold steady at 2.4%, with the core rate unchanged at 2.8%.

These figures will be watched closely for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move – and any deviation from the forecast could spark fresh volatility in dollar pairs.

Manage Currency Risk with Qu Money

With global trade policy shifts and key inflation data shaping the market outlook, now is a critical time to stay informed.
For expert guidance on how today’s developments could affect your currency exposure – or to take advantage of market opportunities – contact a Qu Money specialist today.

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