Monthly Archives: April 2025

Pound Lags as Tariff Fears Return Despite UK GDP Surprise
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Pound Under Pressure as Tariff Fears Return, But UK GDP Beats Forecasts

The market’s brief moment of optimism came crashing down yesterday as reality set in: the US-China trade war is far from over.

Investors initially welcomed the US decision to defer reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, but the relief rally quickly reversed as doubts grew over the feasibility of negotiating multiple complex trade deals within that window.

Risk Appetite Fades as Trade Tensions Resurface

As the mood soured, risk appetite dropped sharply. The escalation in trade rhetoric, coupled with a lack of concrete diplomatic progress, left markets on edge. Tariffs may be delayed — but the threat of imposition still looms large.

Safe-Haven Currencies Rise

Currency markets reacted swiftly. Classic safe havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and euro all benefited from the shift in sentiment.

Meanwhile, both the US dollar and British pound came under pressure, allowing the euro to hit fresh year-to-date highs against both currencies — a clear signal of where investor confidence currently lies.

UK GDP Surprises to the Upside

Amid the market volatility, there was a silver lining for Sterling: the UK’s monthly GDP for February exceeded expectations, rising by 0.5% compared to a forecast of just 0.1%.

This better-than-expected growth offers a glimmer of hope for the UK economy, which has been weighed down by high interest rates and policy uncertainty in recent months.

US Consumer Sentiment on the Radar

Looking ahead, attention will shift to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, due later today. As a leading indicator of US economic health, it could influence market direction — particularly for the dollar — depending on whether it signals resilience or further strain among American households.

Plan Proactively in Unpredictable Markets

In today’s fast-moving landscape, staying informed isn’t enough — it’s crucial to be proactive. Whether you’re concerned about tariff-driven currency moves or want to make the most of positive UK data, Qumoney’s FX experts are here to guide you.

Reach out today for strategic insights and personalised solutions to help your business stay one step ahead.

Markets Jittery as US Imposes 104% Tariffs on Chinese Imports
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Markets Jittery as US Imposes 104% Tariffs on China

Trading conditions have been particularly volatile over the past 24 hours, as conflicting market sentiment reflects deepening uncertainty around the ongoing US-China trade war.

While some participants held out hope for a diplomatic breakthrough that might see tariffs removed, others feared a further escalation — fears that were quickly realised.

US Strikes Back with 104% Tariffs

Overnight, the US implemented reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports, including an eye-watering 104% duty, reinforcing the narrative that tensions between the world’s two largest economies are far from easing.

This aggressive move not only fuels further economic uncertainty but also threatens to disrupt global supply chains and drag on investor confidence worldwide.

Mixed Fortunes in Currency Markets

The euro was under pressure throughout much of yesterday, but found a slightly firmer tone overnight. Meanwhile, the US dollar staged a modest recovery during the European session — only to sell off again overnight, reflecting the heightened volatility gripping FX markets.

With investor sentiment swinging on every headline, currency movements are likely to remain sensitive to trade news and geopolitical developments.

Fed Minutes in Focus

Today’s spotlight turns to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could shed light on how US policymakers are reacting to the trade-driven economic outlook.

Beyond that, the data calendar is notably quiet on both sides of the Atlantic, meaning tariff-related headlines will continue to dominate market direction.

Navigating Turbulent Markets

With currency markets in flux and the macro outlook clouded by political risk, it’s critical for businesses to stay informed and agile. Our team at Qumoney can help you manage exposure, mitigate risk, and take advantage of timely market opportunities.

Speak to our experts today for tailored FX strategies and insights that help you stay ahead.

US-China tariff war
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Pound Slips Further as US-China Tariff War Escalates

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, but don’t let that fool you — market volatility is still in full swing. Currency markets remain under pressure as the US-China tariff war continues to heat up, fuelling global uncertainty and driving a sell-off in the pound.

All Eyes on the Fed Speech Tonight

While data is light today, traders will be watching closely this evening when the President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve delivers a speech. Although not a major scheduled policy event, any comments made could provide valuable insight into how one of the twelve key Federal Reserve Districts is viewing the growing impact of the Trump administration’s trade policy.

Tit-for-Tat Tariffs Rock the Markets

Market nerves remain frayed following China’s retaliatory move to impose 34% tariffs on all US imports, a direct response to last week’s dramatic US tariff announcement — also set at 34%, coinciding with what Beijing labelled ‘liberation day’.

Now, the situation is poised to escalate even further. The US has threatened to introduce an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods from Wednesday, a move that would bring the total effective tariff rate to a staggering 104%.

Such a drastic rise in trade levies would have far-reaching implications for global supply chains, inflation, and investor confidence — not to mention the currencies caught in the crossfire.

Sterling Under Pressure Across the Board

Amid the uncertainty, the pound is struggling, declining against all major peers today. With no fresh domestic data to support it and risk sentiment firmly tilted toward caution, Sterling is feeling the full impact of global risk aversion.

Strategic Moves in Volatile Times

With markets as unpredictable as they are now, it’s more important than ever to have a clear strategy for managing currency exposure. Whether you’re looking to safeguard your international payments or take advantage of exchange rate swings, Qumoney’s FX experts are here to help.

Contact us today for market insights and tailored solutions to support your business through global turbulence.

GBP/EUR hits 8-month low
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GBP/EUR Hits 8-Month Low as Euro Surges in Turbulent Market Conditions

Sterling stumbled to fresh eight-month lows against the euro on Friday, as global markets reeled from renewed volatility and risk-off sentiment. The Euro outshone its peers across the board, capitalising on broad weakness in other major currencies — including a brief comeback by the US dollar.

Sterling Slides, Euro Dominates

The GBP/EUR exchange rate dropped by as much as 1% on Friday, dragged down by risk aversion and a resilient euro. The single currency surged even more impressively against risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar, which tumbled over 4% at its lowest point.

The sharp moves reflect growing investor caution as global economic headwinds mount — from escalating trade tensions to central banks’ hawkish stances.

Could the Euro Rally Reverse?

While the euro is currently enjoying a strong run, its trajectory could be challenged in the coming days. A looming tariff confrontation between Brussels and Washington would likely dent euro sentiment and potentially give Sterling some much-needed breathing space.

As ever, politics and international relations remain a key driver in the FX markets — and traders will be closely watching for any policy announcements or rhetoric from either side.

UK GDP Report Could Be a Gamechanger

Looking ahead, all eyes will turn to the UK’s February GDP report, due later this week. Any signs that the economy has stalled could limit Sterling’s recovery potential, especially as the country grapples with persistently high interest rates and subdued business confidence.

With April’s fiscal changes on the horizon, investors are cautious about the UK’s short-term economic outlook — a factor that could keep GBP/EUR under pressure for now.

Manage Risk, Seize Opportunities

As the FX market becomes more unpredictable, having the right currency strategy is crucial for protecting your bottom line. Whether you’re hedging exposure or taking advantage of market swings, our Qumoney specialists can help you make confident decisions.

Speak to our team today to learn how to protect your international payments and turn volatility into opportunity.

Pound Falls as Recession Fears Rise Amid US Tariff Fallout
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Sterling Slips on Recession Fears as Markets Eye US Non-Farm Payrolls

Sterling continued to slide overnight, losing ground against major currencies as fears of a global recession intensified. The catalyst? Fresh tariff measures announced by President Trump, which have rattled investor confidence and reignited concerns about trade-driven economic slowdown.

GBP Drops Against Majors, Gains Elsewhere

The pound has shed around 1.5% against both the euro and the US dollar over the past 24 hours. This drop reflects a broader flight to safety among investors, with heightened demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.

Interestingly, while sterling struggles against the majors, it’s showing resilience against a basket of other currencies — including the Australian dollar and South African rand. This reflects the complex ripple effects of tariff tensions across different economies.

European Data Already in Focus

Earlier today, key economic indicators from Europe were released:

  • German Manufacturing figures
  • French Industrial Production data

Both metrics offer a snapshot of Europe’s industrial health at a time when global trade disruptions loom large.

All Eyes on US Non-Farm Payrolls

Attention now shifts to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, due at 1:30pm (UK time). This highly anticipated report is expected to show a decline in job creation — yet given recent volatility in forecasts vs actual outcomes, markets are braced for a potential surprise.

Should the data beat or miss expectations significantly, we could see renewed swings in both currency and equity markets. This is especially true as traders weigh up the growing risk of a US recession triggered by the ongoing tariff war.

Why This Matters for Businesses

Market movements like these can create both risks and opportunities for international businesses. Exchange rate shifts can impact everything from supplier payments to overseas income — and in a volatile environment, timing and strategy are everything.

Qumoney’s FX experts are here to help. Whether you’re looking to hedge risk or seize favourable currency rates, we offer tailored solutions to support your global operations.

Contact us today for a one-on-one discussion about how to navigate market uncertainty with confidence.

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