Monthly Archives: October 2024

Tuesday is relatively quiet on the economic front, with only one major event scheduled. The highlight of the day will be Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at 14:25. His comments are expected to attract significant attention, particularly following the recent unexpected decline in UK inflation.

Investors will be keen to hear Bailey’s thoughts on how this inflation report might impact interest rate decisions for the remainder of the year. Speculation is rife that the report could influence future monetary policy.

Later in the week, the UK’s economic data releases continue with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Thursday. A slight decline in the PMI is expected, with forecasts suggesting a dip to 51.4 from 51.5, indicating marginally slower growth in the UK economy.

In the currency markets, the pound has extended its decline against the US dollar for three consecutive weeks. This sustained weakness may present an opportunity for those looking to sell dollars, as the exchange rate favours dollar holders.

Meanwhile, the pound has been holding its ground against the euro, hovering near yearly highs. This stability reflects the ongoing resilience of the pound in the face of mixed economic signals.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Today is a busy day in terms of economic data with the EU inflation figures due at 10am followed by the ECB’s interest rate announcement in the afternoon.

Later today, we have the US retail sales & Industrial production figures due.

The ECB interest rate announcement at 1.15pm will be the main focus today.

There is very high expectation rates will be cut again today for a second consecutive time, following clear evidence of a slowing economy and inflation rates dropping to its lowest level in some time.

The comments that follow thereafter by ECB president Christine Lagarde will as always be carefully monitored for clues on the banks future expectations and rate cuts.

A rate cut in December is already looking likely and is widely expected by markets.

The ECB is unlikely to alter its expectations on future rate cuts, therefore we could see a fairly resistant euro on the back of this, unless of course there are surprises.

US retail sales are expected to come in at 0.3 percent, higher than last month’s 0.1 percent figure.

The dollar is well supported on the back of global negativity and has gained 3.5 percent against the pound over the past month.

GBP dropped following softer-than-forecast UK inflation data at the start of the week raising the odds of bank rate cut in November.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Key UK Economic Data Expected to Move Pound Sterling This Week

With no major economic data on the agenda for today, market attention is set to turn toward some key UK data releases later in the week. Here’s what to watch for and how these updates could impact the British Pound.

Tuesday: UK Labour Market Data

Tomorrow morning, UK labour market figures will be released, shedding light on the Bank of England’s next move on interest rates. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to stay steady at 4.1 percent. The average earnings index, another closely watched indicator, will provide insights into wage growth. Together, these data points will help guide the Bank’s stance on potential rate cuts.

Wednesday: UK Inflation Update for September

On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the UK’s inflation report for September. Economists predict inflation will drop to 1.9 percent from 2.2 percent in August, signaling potential easing in price pressures. If inflation indeed cools, it could sway the Bank of England toward considering an interest rate cut, impacting the value of the Pound.

Thursday: UK Retail Sales for September

To close the week, the UK’s retail sales data for September is due out. A modest decline of 0.3 percent is expected following August’s 1 percent rise. This data will reflect consumer spending trends and provide clues on the health of the UK economy as it heads into the final quarter of the year.

ECB Rate Decision Adds Another Layer of Interest

Adding to the week’s interest, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its rate decision. Markets widely anticipate a rate cut to 3.4 percent, a move that could influence the euro and indirectly affect the Pound.

Market Volatility Expected to Rise

After a relatively calm week, the Pound Sterling could see increased volatility with these upcoming data releases.

If you’re looking to navigate these shifts or leverage market opportunities, contact one of our experts for tailored insights on how these changes could impact your business.