Monthly Archives: September 2024

Investor sentiment remained cautious yesterday. Overall, markets were rather quiet, as markets prepare for today’s US labour market report.

Data-wise, the US non-manufacturing ISM rose to 51.5 in August, beating expectations of a drop to 51.1.

Meanwhile, the latest initial jobless claims totalled 227k (compared to 230k expected). ADP employment increased by only 99k in August, significantly below the consensus of 145k.

However, the link between ADP and government payroll statistics is rather poor. Against this backdrop, the dollar dropped following yesterday’s ADP data.

Looking ahead, the main attention will be on theUS jobs market report. Payrolls are expected to increase by 160k, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to fall to 4.2%.

The announcement provides some event risk for the dollar, as a negative report could boost market expectations for a 50 basis point rate decrease by the Fed later this month.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

US Economic Data in the Spotlight Today

Today’s focus is on a mix of key US economic data, set to influence market movements.

What to Watch This Afternoon

Investors will be keenly watching US unemployment claims, the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey, and PMI statistics.

US PMI Forecasted to Dip

The PMI for August is expected to fall slightly to 51.1. The ISM Non-Manufacturing survey may indicate whether the Fed needs a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut.

Dollar Tested by Job Openings Data

Yesterday, the dollar faced pressure after JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected at 7.67 million, versus a forecast of 8.1 million. This signals a weakening labour market.

GBP/USD Rallies on Slowing US Economy

GBP/USD initially surged to a weekly high following data suggesting a slowing US economy.

Tomorrow’s Key Non-Farm Payrolls Report

Non-Farm Payrolls, due tomorrow, are expected to show 160k new jobs added. A weaker-than-expected figure could increase the likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut on September 18th.

US Unemployment Rate Expected to Fall

The US unemployment rate is forecasted to drop to 4.2 percent in August. However, a decline in job numbers earlier this week might impact this figure.

Get Expert Insights on Market Volatility

For tailored insights on how these developments could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility, speak to one of our experts today.

GBP/USD Selloff Continues Amid Recession Fears

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has continued its decline as new US economic data signals a possible recession.

Dollar Rises as US Stocks Fall

The dollar gained strength while US stocks dropped in response to a risk-off reaction. A survey of US manufacturers showed the sector is stagnating, with rising pricing pressures.

US Manufacturing PMI Indicates Contraction

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI for August came in at 47.2%, below expectations of 47.5%. Any figure below 50 indicates contraction. This drop reflects renewed inflationary pressures, worrying markets about limited future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Eurozone Inflation Data on the Horizon

In the Eurozone, producer price inflation is expected to remain sharply negative at -2.5% for July. This trend could further influence market sentiment in the region.

US Job Vacancies Expected to Hold Steady

The US JOLTS job vacancies report for July is anticipated to remain stable at 8.1 million. Barring any major surprises, this data is unlikely to have a significant impact on currency markets.

Stay Ahead of Market Volatility

For insights on how these shifts could affect your business, or to capitalise on market volatility, reach out to our experts today.

With U.S. markets closed yesterday, today’s focus shifts to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, due later this afternoon. Markets expect a rise to 47.5 signalling an improvement. While this is positive for the Federal Reserve, it remains below the 50-point mark that indicates growth.

As today’s U.S. data is the only significant economic release, attention will soon turn to the latter part of the week. The Non-Farm Payrolls report, the week’s most anticipated release is expected to show a recovery from last month’s weak numbers. This report will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and future policy decisions.

In the currency markets, the British pound continues to hold its strength against both the euro and the U.S. dollar. Despite economic uncertainties, the pound’s resilience underscores its stability in recent trading.

Investors and analysts will be closely monitoring these developments, as they could set the tone for the remainder of the month. Any surprises in the data could lead to heightened market volatility, particularly in the currency and equity markets.

As the week progresses, all eyes will be on the economic data, with significant implications for market movements and future policy direction.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

A Promising Week for UK Manufacturing, But Currency Volatility Looms

The week kicks off with the UK’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, with expectations of a rise in the manufacturing sector. The forecasted index of 52.5 signals positive growth, offering a boost of confidence in this vital sector.

The pound remains strong, sitting near its two-year high against the dollar. However, this stability could be tested in the coming days. With the Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Federal Reserve all expected to cut interest rates this month, we can expect heightened volatility in the currency markets. Such fluctuations could have a significant impact on major currency pairings, making it a critical time for businesses engaged in international trade.

As the week progresses, markets will closely watch key economic releases. The spotlight will be on the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a crucial indicator of the region’s economic health. This data will provide a clearer picture of the Eurozone’s performance and potential future trends.

In the US, the focus will shift to Friday’s Employment – Non-Farm Payrolls report. This highly anticipated report will give insight into the US labour market, offering key clues about the overall economic outlook.

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For expert guidance on how these developments could impact your business, or to seize opportunities in this volatile market, reach out to one of our specialists for tailored advice.