Monthly Archives: March 2024

Investor sentiment remained cautious yesterday. Overall, markets were rather quiet, as markets prepare for today's US labour market report.
Posted on

Money News Overview Thursday 28th March: GDP figures confirm UK recession

Already released this morning, UK GDP shrank by -0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 and has confirmed that the UK is going to remain in technical recession following two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

This reading is negative for the Bank of England and puts pressure on the policymakers to cut interest rates promptly to encourage consumer spending. Markets are expecting the BoE to cut rates before the ECB and Fed, and this has been reflected in the Pounds performance against the Dollar and Euro over the last month.

In the US, the number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits is forecasted to come in at 212k.

Elsewhere in the States, GDP is set to increase at an annual rate of 3.2 percent. This release supports the US economy and the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates at a 23-year high.

Investors are forecasting the Fed to cut interest rates in June. This has resulted in a stronger Dollar as EURUSD has slipped to its lowest level in March.

Today’s focus is on a mix of key US economic data, set to influence market movements.
Posted on

Money News Overview Tuesday 26th March: A quiet day for the UK and EU as focus switches to US data

It is a quiet day today in terms of data for both the UK and the EU.

Later this afternoon, we have the Durable Goods, Home Price Index and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey for the US.

The US data will be closely watched & will provide clues on activity in the factory sector.

US factory data of late has shown that the most cyclical parts of manufacturing have continued to signal that output is still falling.

On Wednesday, focus will switch to the EU Business & Consumer Confidence data, before attention then returns to the UK.

This Thursday, UK growth figures will be closely watched as will the US growth figures later in the day.

To cap off the week, we have the French CPI and US personal income data. 

Today's economic calendar is quiet, with no major data releases. Attention shifts to Thursday for the first significant report of the week, when the U.S. will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first since the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points last month.
Posted on

Money News Overview Monday 25th March: New Home Sales the major release today

European Central Bank President Lagarde’s speech is the first major release of today, where she is expected to speak at 10am this morning. Investors will tune in to see how the ECB views the current state of economy.

Later today the US will release their New Home Sales report, this is the number of sales of newly constructed homes in the USA, forecasted to come in at 680k (from 661k).

Looking ahead this week for the UK, the main release comes on Thursday which is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Markets are expecting a further decline in quarterly growth with a decline to -0.3 (from -0.1).

The US will release their GDP and Employment figures on Thursday, with the latter of those releases expecting the number of Unemployment Claims to come in at 215k up 5k from last week’s figures.

Last week the pound suffered its biggest decline of this year, falling 80 points against the euro and then nearly a 200 point decline against the dollar.

As of this morning the pound currently sits just above last year’s average against the euro. The same can be said for the pound dollar rate.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has continued its decline as new US economic data signals a possible recession.
Posted on

Money News Overview Friday 22nd March: Dollar is in ascendancy

Yesterday, the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged, as expected. However, the meeting statement indicated that the BoE is getting closer to reducing rates. The vote breakdown on the MPC was 8:1 in favour of no rate changes, with two members no longer voting for an increase. 

Furthermore, Governor Bailey has stated that rate cuts are “in play” at the next meeting. According to futures prices, the market believes the Bank of England will decrease interest rates in June by 80%. By the end of the year, 75 basis points of rate reduction will have been factored in. Against this backdrop, sterling has weakened. 

Meanwhile, the flash PMI data for March showed that the US economy continued to grow at a rapid pace, while the Eurozone and UK readings were mixed, providing an additional lift to the greenback.

UK retail sales and consumer confidence numbers were announced earlier this morning. Retail sales stagnated in February, and consumer confidence remained constant at -21 in March. Later today, the German Ifo for March is due. Remarks from ECB Chief Economist Lane will also be of interest.

UK borrowing rises ahead of Budget
Posted on

Money News Overview Thursday 21st March: Dollar stumbles after Fed announcement

Today’s key event is the Bank of England policy announcement at midday. It is expected that the Bank of England will hold rates ate 5.25 percent – a 16 year high.

Yesterdays Inflation figures fell further than anticipated, therefore potentially putting pressure on the Bank to bring forward their interest rate expectations.

Markets will be eager to see how the policy members vote as this will potentially give clues to when the bank may cut interest rates.

We have seen a stronger pound over the past 3 months, due to market expectations that the BOE will cut rates later than the Fed and the ECB. This could change over the next few months.

Markets will also focus heavily on tomorrows Retail Sales figures for the UK following today’s events. Retail Sales have been somewhat mixed of late but did pick up last month.

Purchasing Managers Index figures in the manufacturing and services sector are set to be released this morning in the EU, UK, France and Germany. Across the board all figures are forecasted to show expansion from their previous releases, apart from the UK PMI services data set to slightly fall.

Yesterday evening, the Fed held interest rates in a range of 5.25% – 5.5%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell voiced that a 25-basis point rate cut in June is on the cards, followed by two additional 25-basis point cuts throughout the year.

Jerome Powell’s speech has positioned the Dollar on the backfoot falling 0.6 percent against the Pound and 0.5 percent vs the Euro. GBPUSD has moved to 1-week high sitting 100 basis points above the year-to-date average moving rate.

1 2 3 4