Monthly Archives: October 2023

It’s a relatively calm start to what should be a busy week for data releases, notably in the United Kingdom. Because there will be no major data releases, the market’s attention will be drawn to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, as well as statements from major central bank officials in the run-up to the next round of policy announcements.

Pound Sterling appears to be under pressure versus the Euro after a seven-day recovery was reversed at the conclusion of last week; attention in the coming days will be supplied by UK wage and inflation data.

The all important September inflation figures are out on Wednesday, and the market expects headline inflation to decline to 6.5% year on year from 6.7%.but the month-on-month number is expected to jump from 0.3% to 0.4%

Retail sales and industrial production for September, as well as a variety of housing market updates, are due in the United States. However, comments from several Fed speakers may have a greater impact on the dollar. The data calendar in the Eurozone is quite light.

Today’s macro calendar is busier. Already this morning we have got UK GDP for August. Its rose by 0.2% m/m, which was in line with expectations. Later today, we get US CPI figures for September. 

Meanwhile, the release of the Fed’s September minutes provided no significant fresh insight into monetary policy.

The Fed maintained a hawkish tone at the meeting, leaving rates unchanged in a target range of 5.25-5.50%.However, a number of FOMC members have become less hawkish about the need for future rate hikes in recent days.

The European Central Bank will disclose the minutes of last month’s policy meeting, in which interest rates were raised for the tenth time in a row, but the ECB also hinted that it might be the last.

This morning, the ECB’s consumer expectations survey will be closely watched as a gauge of Eurozone inflation. In September, the eurozone’s actual inflation rate fell to 4.3%.

 In the United States, the spotlight will be on the FOMC minutes from the September policy meeting, during which the Fed paused but hinted the possibility of another raise in Q4. In addition, the most recent producer price inflation data will be issued ahead of tomorrow’s CPI inflation report.

The UK highlight is monthly GDP for August which will be released early Thursday morning. key component of GDP is industrial production, which is expected to shrink by 0.1%. Overall, we predict the economy to increase by 0.1% quarter on quarter in Q3, indicating that growth is slowing but not declining.

Several Fed and ECB speakers are scheduled to talk today, and they may provide more up-to-date evaluations of the economy.

On the currency front, the pound has continued to tumble against the dollar, but there are hopes that it will resume its march against both the dollar and the euro in the coming months.

With PPI and CPI being released in the US, Europe, and the UK tomorrow. Another significant discussion point markets will be the UK’s GBP statistics on Thursday, which are predicted to rise to 0.2% from -0.5% MoM.



Looking ahead today. The Labour Party’s leader, Keir Starmer, will address at the party’s annual convention later today. In terms of priorities, he is set to repeat the comments made by the Shadow Chancellor yesterday, arguing that if Labour forms the next government, it will be financially conservative

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A number of Federal Reserve policymakers from the United States are expected to speak. Markets will be looking for reactions to recent developments as well as hints that a US interest rate hike is on the agenda for November.