In the eurozone, analysts currently anticipate Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate of 2.5% for March, down from 2.6% vs. February. This comes after recent national data releases, especially those from Germany and France, which have surprised on the downside. Core CPI inflation is also expected to reach a two-year low of 3.0% or lower.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone unemployment rate, which will be released shortly, is expected to continue at a low of 6.4%, keeping policymakers on alert against wage pressure. Overall, it looks like the first rate drop in next week’s ECB policy report is too soon.
There are a few important US data releases today before Friday’s highly anticipated monthly labour market report.
To begin, the unofficial ADP employment report will be closely watched as an indication of Friday’s job numbers. Its expected that there will be an increase of 180k for ADP private sector payrolls and 225k for Friday’s official payrolls.