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Money News Overview 15th October: The dollar firmed overnight

There was a relatively quiet start to the week on financial markets yesterday. This was partly due to a sparse data schedule on both sides of the Atlantic and a partial market holiday in the US.

Meanwhile, currency markets remained range bound. Of the limited moves to note, the euro was holding a slightly softer tone throughout the European session. At the same time, the dollar was in the ascendancy overnight, amid hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller.

Already today, The pound strengthened versus the euro after the ONS announced on-target wage growth and a fall in the UK unemployment rate.

UK earnings, excluding incentives, increased by 4.9% from June to August 2024. Including bonuses, it increased by 3.8%.

Both readings were consistent with forecasts and are unlikely to significantly change expectations for the Bank of England’s impending interest rate decisions.

However, an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 4% from 4.1% calls for a gradual approach to rate cuts.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Today's economic calendar is quiet, with no major data releases. Attention shifts to Thursday for the first significant report of the week, when the U.S. will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first since the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points last month.

Money News Overview Monday 9th September: Focus will shift to this week’s ECB policy announcement

A quiet start to the week with only the EU Sentix figures and US Consumer Credit.

Focus then quickly shifts to tomorrows German CPI and the UK Employment figures.

Employment in the UK is expected to show a decline in the average earnings, falling from 5.4 percent down to 5.1 percent.

On Wednesday, UK growth figures are due and are expected to show a positive reading from zero to 0.2 percent.

UK industrial production will also be closely watched, along with the US CPI figures later in the afternoon.

The main event of the week will be the ECB’s Interest rate announcement on Thursday.

It is widely expected that the ECB will cut the interest rate down from 4.25 percent to 3.65 percent.

The comments that follow will be closely watched for any signs of future rate cuts and clues into policy guidance.


For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

There was a muted reaction from the FX market following yesterday’s announcement that Joe Biden will stand down in the race for the next president of the United States.

Money News Overview Monday 22nd July: Biden steps down from presidential race – FX markets muted

A quiet start to the week with no economic data due today.

There was a muted reaction from the FX market following yesterday’s announcement that Joe Biden will stand down in the race for the next president of the United States.

The selection of Joe Bidens replacement will be confirmed at the Democrat National Convention, which this year begins on August 19th. Bidens replacement on the ticket is highly likely to be Vice President Kamala Harris.

Last week, the pound hit highs against the dollar but has since declined following last week’s IT outage prompting investors to buy ‘safe haven’ dollars. With the glitch now fixed, there is a chance we could see some improving investor sentiment that can support the pound.

 UK PMIs on Wednesday are the only significant risk for the pound this week.

For the US, the preliminary GDP figures will be closely watched ahead of this Fridays release of the PCE inflation figures, which the FED monitors closely when considering interest rate policy.

The pound has dropped against the euro over the past week, having hit fresh highs last Wednesday. 

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

Money News Overview Friday 12th July: The pound surges to a new 2024 high versus the dollar

Yesterday, markets were mostly focused on US CPI inflation data for June. The dollar suffered its greatest daily loss in a month as the United States reported that inflation fell last month, enhancing the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate drop in September.

The pound-to-dollar currency rate broke above the 1.29 barrier to reach a new 2024 high after U.S. CPI inflation fell -0.1% month-on-month in June, down from 0% in May and below expectations of a 0.1% gain.

ese inflation figures are the latest in a number of US economic reports that have come in below expectations. Last week’s job report revealed a 111K decrease to expectations of US job growth in April and May. In June, US unemployment jumped to 4.1%.

The Fed will be concerned about going forward, now that the disinflationary trend has resumed.

Today’s European economic diary is quiet. In the United States, the primary highlights are PPI inflation in June and consumer sentiment in July. If the data continue the recent trend of softer US indices, the dollar could remain on the defensive heading into the weekend.

For additional insights on how this could affect your business or to capitalise on market volatility – please reach out to speak to one of our experts.

UK borrowing rises ahead of Budget

Money News Overview Thursday 21st March: Dollar stumbles after Fed announcement

Today’s key event is the Bank of England policy announcement at midday. It is expected that the Bank of England will hold rates ate 5.25 percent – a 16 year high.

Yesterdays Inflation figures fell further than anticipated, therefore potentially putting pressure on the Bank to bring forward their interest rate expectations.

Markets will be eager to see how the policy members vote as this will potentially give clues to when the bank may cut interest rates.

We have seen a stronger pound over the past 3 months, due to market expectations that the BOE will cut rates later than the Fed and the ECB. This could change over the next few months.

Markets will also focus heavily on tomorrows Retail Sales figures for the UK following today’s events. Retail Sales have been somewhat mixed of late but did pick up last month.

Purchasing Managers Index figures in the manufacturing and services sector are set to be released this morning in the EU, UK, France and Germany. Across the board all figures are forecasted to show expansion from their previous releases, apart from the UK PMI services data set to slightly fall.

Yesterday evening, the Fed held interest rates in a range of 5.25% – 5.5%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell voiced that a 25-basis point rate cut in June is on the cards, followed by two additional 25-basis point cuts throughout the year.

Jerome Powell’s speech has positioned the Dollar on the backfoot falling 0.6 percent against the Pound and 0.5 percent vs the Euro. GBPUSD has moved to 1-week high sitting 100 basis points above the year-to-date average moving rate.