Author Archives: Ricky Kielkowski

currency market update
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Pound Falls on Election Jitters as Markets Await US Non-Farm Payrolls

Today’s US non-farm payrolls report is expected to be the main market driver, with economists forecasting a sharp slowdown in job creation. The headline figure is projected to come in at 130,000, well below last month’s 228,000.

Typically, a weaker-than-expected number would weigh on the US dollar, potentially reversing some of its recent gains — though much depends on broader risk sentiment.

EU CPI Also on the Radar

At 10:00am UK time, the Eurozone’s flash CPI estimate will be released. This data will be key for shaping ECB interest rate expectations, particularly as inflation continues to show signs of cooling in the bloc.

GBP Declines on Election Surprise

Currency markets have been volatile over the past 24 hours, with the pound under pressure. Overnight, GBP dipped by around 1% against the dollar and 0.5% against the euro, as traders reacted to UK local election results, which appear to have surprised markets and added uncertainty to the political landscape.

This morning’s sell-off in GBP suggests investor nerves remain high, with broader sentiment still fragile ahead of key economic announcements.

Looking Ahead: BoE Policy Decision

Next week’s focus will shift to the Bank of England policy announcement, where a 0.25% interest rate cut is widely expected. With inflation softening and the economy showing signs of fatigue, a policy shift could add further pressure to Sterling unless carefully managed by Governor Bailey and the MPC.

Stay Informed, Stay Ahead

In a week packed with crucial data and political headlines, it’s vital to stay informed and act decisively. Whether you’re managing payroll overseas, importing goods, or repatriating profits, timing your currency transactions can make all the difference.

Qumoney’s FX experts are here to support you with actionable insights and smart currency solutions.

Get in touch today to make confident decisions in a volatile market.

Dollar Strengthens Overnight as Markets Await US ISM Data
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Dollar Gains After BOJ Decision as Markets Await US ISM Data

Dollar Gains After BOJ Decision as Markets Await US ISM Data

Currency markets traded within narrow ranges during the European session on Thursday, with both the euro and sterling coming under light pressure, while the US dollar held a firmer tone.

That mild strength turned into a clearer dollar rally overnight, as investors digested global central bank developments.

Yen Weaker After BOJ Holds Steady

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) opted to leave policy unchanged, as widely expected — a decision that prompted further weakness in the Japanese yen. In contrast, the dollar gained ground against multiple currencies, including the yen, on the back of this divergence in monetary policy.

Lighter Day Ahead for Economic Data

The macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet on both sides of the Atlantic today. However, there are two key US releases that traders will be watching:

  • US ISM Manufacturing Index (April) – Forecasts suggest a modest deterioration, which could reignite concerns over the health of the US industrial sector.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims – Offering a timely look at labour market conditions ahead of tomorrow’s closely watched non-farm payrolls.

These prints will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, especially in light of recent data showing slowing momentum in some parts of the US economy.

Why It Matters for Businesses

Even in quieter sessions, currency markets can shift quickly in response to key economic indicators or central bank policy cues. With the dollar gaining and other currencies on the back foot, now’s a smart time to review your FX exposure — particularly if you’re managing USD-denominated costs or contracts.

Qumoney’s expert FX team is here to help you stay ahead of market moves and build a currency strategy that supports your business goals.

Contact us today for tailored support and real-time insights.

Pound Hits 3-Year High vs Dollar as US Slowdown Fears Mount
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Pound Hits 3-Year High vs Dollar as Markets Eye Major Data Releases

Sterling surged on Wednesday, with the pound-to-dollar exchange rate hitting its highest level since February 2022 — marking a fresh three-year high. This rally reflects both renewed confidence in the pound and continued weakness in the US dollar.

Dollar Weakness Fuels Sterling Rally

The move higher was part of a broader advance in the pound, driven by easing market volatility and the ongoing USD sell-off that has defined the early part of 2025.

Fears of a US economic slowdown continue to weigh on the greenback, offering the pound additional upside potential in the weeks ahead — particularly if today’s economic data disappoints.

Data Deluge from the Eurozone

Today brings a wave of EU data, including:

  • French CPI
  • German Retail Sales
  • Eurozone GDP growth figures

These releases will be watched closely for signs of inflation persistence and economic resilience, particularly as the ECB considers its next policy move.

UK House Prices Weaken

Already released this morning, the UK House Price Index showed a steeper decline than expected, falling 0.6% on the month. While not entirely surprising given the high interest rate environment, this underlines the strain in the UK property sector.

US Data Could Shift Sentiment

Later today, a raft of US economic data is due, including:

  • ADP Employment Change
  • Q1 GDP
  • Personal Income & Spending

Markets will be analysing these numbers for signs of economic momentum — or lack thereof. Any downside surprises could deepen dollar losses and further support GBP/USD gains.

Time to Act on Market Moves

With Sterling showing strength and data driving daily volatility, now is the time to evaluate your FX exposure. Sudden shifts in sentiment could offer opportunity — or risk — depending on how you’re positioned.

Qumoney’s currency experts are on hand to help you make sense of today’s market and capitalise on favourable rates.

Speak to us today for timely insights and bespoke foreign exchange strategies.

Dollar Weakens as Confidence Data and Sentiment Indicators Loom
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Dollar Dips Amid Volatile Trading as Confidence Data Takes Centre Stage

It’s been a turbulent 24 hours in currency markets, with the US dollar starting the day strong, only to reverse course ahead of the European close. By the end of the session, the dollar had lost ground, continuing a broader softening trend.

Meanwhile, the euro stayed on the defensive overnight, unable to capitalise on the greenback’s late-session weakness.

Focus Shifts to Key Sentiment Data

Looking ahead, today’s data calendar is packed, offering fresh insight into economic sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic.

In Europe, the spotlight will be on the European Commission’s sentiment indicators for April. Modest declines are expected across most sectors, reflecting the continued strain from inflation and trade uncertainty.

In the US, attention will turn to two key releases:

  • JOLTS Job Vacancies (March) – a closely watched indicator of labour market strength.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (April) – projected to drop sharply from 92.9 to 87.5, the lowest reading since January 2021.

A weak confidence print could further dampen the dollar’s recovery prospects, particularly as concerns grow over slowing domestic demand and consumer sentiment.

What This Means for FX Markets

With confidence indicators in focus, markets are bracing for further volatility. The direction of the dollar — and broader risk sentiment — could hinge on how today’s data compares to expectations.

For businesses, this environment presents both challenges and opportunities. Exchange rate shifts can impact costs, margins, and the timing of cross-border payments.

Qumoney’s currency specialists are here to help you navigate these market moves and develop a strategy that works for your business.

Contact us today for tailored FX solutions and real-time insights.

UK Retail Sales Surprise and Dollar Under Pressure
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Currency Market Update: UK Retail Sales Surprise and Dollar Dips

Despite a relatively light macroeconomic calendar, there’s still been plenty to keep an eye on in the markets today. Here’s a roundup of the key developments.

German Business Confidence Beats Expectations

The biggest data release came from Germany, where the latest IFO business climate index surprised to the upside.
The index rose to 86.9 in April, signalling a more optimistic outlook among German businesses than many had forecasted. This provided a modest lift to market sentiment across Europe.

US Unemployment Claims Remain Stable

Across the Atlantic, the most recent initial weekly unemployment claims in the United States were reported at 222,000.
While this figure was broadly in line with expectations, it continues to highlight a US labour market that, despite recent economic headwinds, remains resilient.

Dollar Feels the Pressure

Currency markets were relatively subdued overall, but the US dollar did experience some downward pressure yesterday.
Movements were minor, but the softer dollar reflects growing uncertainty around the trajectory of the US economy and interest rate policy.

UK Retail Sales Beat Forecasts

Closer to home, UK retail sales figures for March provided a positive surprise.
Sales rose by 0.4% month-on-month, defying expectations for a 0.4% decline.
Following the announcement, sterling firmed slightly in early trading, offering some encouragement to investors looking for signs of resilience in the UK economy.

Navigating Market Volatility

With currency movements and economic data continuing to surprise, it’s crucial to stay informed and agile.
For tailored insights on how today’s market developments could impact your business – or to explore opportunities to capitalise on volatility – contact one of our Qu Money experts today.

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